For Pierre Poilievre, nastiness serves a strategic political purpose

OTTAWA—Recent attempts by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to present himself as kind and caring have been ridiculed by many political watchers. Their criticism is that the nastiness of his words and actions doesn’t match the image he wants to project. The fact is, it doesn’t have to. Nastiness serves a greater, strategic political purpose. Despite what the polls are predicting about Poilievre’s lack of appeal with women and other voters, the conventional wisdom is that the actual battle to win our hearts and minds only begins once the writ is dropped. That’s when voters start paying close attention to the character of the main contenders. Poilievre, as such, has lots of time; and, as his new ads foreshadow, he has the angles all figured out on how to attract the different demographics. Until then, we can safely assume that the nastiness, the unintentional photo-ops with political outliers and associations with conspiracy theories about the World Economic Forum will continue full throttle. They are Poilievre’s calling card that got him elected to the House of Commons when he was in his 20s; made him a cabinet minister in his 30s; and won him his party's leadership in his 40s. Exuding an oversized tone of reactionary anger and nastiness is—by all accounts—his winning electoral formula. Nastiness also serves a more practical function. It helps Poilievre recruit the over 800,000 right-wing populists who voted for Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party in 2021. Outdoing Bernier in tone and rhetoric helps keep the populists lassoed inside the Conservative camp to stop the vote splitting that may have cost the Conservatives as many as 24 ridings in the last federal election. In his book Nasty Politics: The Logic of Insults, Threats, and Incitement, Thomas Zietzoff, who researches political violence at American University, has developed a theoretical framework for nastiness. Having gathered data from the United States, Israel, and Ukraine, Zietzoff contends that nastiness is a useful tool to signal political toughness. It helps mobilize in-group members, especially in times of national turmoil or perceived existential threats. Zeitzoff's framework provides an insight into the logic behind Poilievre’s political campaign. It is a two-step tactic. You first create the conditions for nastiness with claims that “everything feels broken;” in other words, our way of life is in peril. Then, you come in with what Poilievre is calling the “common sense” approach and rail against all the alleged enemies of the in-group: the elites, the media, and a growing list of many others. Poilievre should, however, be careful and use nastiness sparingly. Zietzoff is quick to note that nastiness can backfire when you are the front-runner, as Poilievre has now become. Voters fear that prolonged nastiness will lead to violence and division. They no longer see you as the underdog, but as a leader—and expect the leader-like behaviours of vision and wisdom. Finding the right balance and knowing when to drop the nastiness will be critical if Poilievre wants to maintain his momentum in the polls. As with all political campaigns, there is no doubt a schism in his team between the pragmatists who want to broaden his appeal, and the idealists who would rather advance impractical ideologies. Either way, they should be reminded that Canadians are a polite people who, as a rule, like nice guys. Moreover, political nastiness can wear thin if it’s stretched out too long. Like all negative emotions, nastiness is hard to sustain for extended durations. In the throes of a political campaign, it can lead to impatience, infighting, and even implosion. This means, at some point soon, Poilievre will have to shift from the fringes of populist nastiness, and start upping his likeability factor. This will require serious policy proposals and a lot of benevolent talking points. It won’t be easy. The math does not look good. Pollster Angus Reid currently has Poilievre's negativity at 52 per cent. David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, opines Poilievre’s “vulnerabilities are perceptions he is vengeful and extreme.” The governing Liberals are naturally going to exploit these perceptions. They can simultaneously frustrate Poilievre’s hopes by delaying the election until the very end of the fixed term, in the fall of 2025, and let his negative numbers gradually define him over that time as an out-of-control nasty wingnut who can't be trusted to run the country. Then, there is Justin Trudeau. The prime minister’s penchant for highbrow morality may be annoying and his foreign policy retrograde, but his domestic feats and a triple AAA credit rating are not. Plus, regardless of a dip in the polls, he has the advantage of having vanquished Poilievre’s mentor, former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, as well as two of Harper’s successors. If Poilievre overplays the nastiness hand, he could be next. Bhagwant Sandhu is a retired director general from the federal government. Between 2002-21 he held senior roles in several departments, including Fisheries and Ocean Canada, Infrastructure Canada, the Treasury Board Secretariat, and Public Works Canada. He has also held executive positions in the governments of Ontario and British Columbia. The Hill Times

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For Pierre Poilievre, nastiness serves a strategic political purpose

Anger is Poilievre’s calling card. It got him elected, made him a cabinet minister, and won him the Conservative leadership.

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