Liberal leadership hopefuls face uphill battle to present themselves as ‘change’

Liberal leadership hopefuls will need to craft their message for “two different audiences” as they face the prospect of a whiplash “pivot” from the leadership campaign to the general election, say pollsters. “The traditional thing to do is you appeal to the base in the leadership race, and then you pivot to the centre afterwards,” said former Liberal PMO staffer Dan Arnold, in an interview with The Hill Times. “But here you don't have that time to pivot.” On Jan. 9, the Liberal Party of Canada released the rules for its coming leadership contest that was set in motion by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) Jan. 6 announcement that he will step down as leader and prime minister once a replacement is chosen. According to the party’s constitution, its leadership races normally must be at least 90 days, but the party has announced plans for an expedited process to be concluded on March 9, exactly two weeks before Parliament is set to return from prorogation on March 24. That means the leadership contest will run only 59 days from when the rules were announced. The membership cut-off date to be eligible to vote is set for Jan. 27, and the entrance fee will be $350,000. Once Parliament returns, the government is expected to fall within days, with all three opposition parties having signalled plans to defeat it. On Jan. 6, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared at a cold morning press conference outside Rideau Cottage, where he annouced his plans to step down once a new Liberal leader is chosen. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade On Jan. 10, CBC News reported the Trudeau government had made a last-ditch effort to secure some additional time, seeking support from either the NDP or Bloc Québécois on the supply bill that must be voted on when the House returns. CBC reported that both parties firmly declined, prompting the Liberal national board to announce the expedited process. Arnold, who is now chief strategy officer at Pollara, said that means this leadership race will be the “first act of the general election,” and “the things you announce in this leadership race are policies you will have to carry into the general election.” Former Liberal PMO staffer Dan Arnold said commitments made in this leadership race are 'effectively election promises.' Photograph courtesy of Twitter In a typical leadership race, “candidates make all kinds of announcements, and, like, half of them get dropped by the time you get to the next election campaign,” he said. “I don't think candidates will have the liberty to do that right now.” “They'll have to be careful of the promises they're making, because they are effectively election promises that they're making during this leadership race,” said Arnold. He said a key criteria Liberal Party members will be looking for is a candidate who has electability in a general election. That means leadership candidates need to showcase that they can be perceived by the general public as an agent of change, but they must do this without alienating core party members who remain supportive of Trudeau-era policies. “There's a risk there if you do start to pivot too far away from the things the government has done … that could be a turnoff among the voting electorate in this leadership race,” he said. As candidates seek to walk that line, Arnold predicted one development that will occur over the course of the leadership campaign: he expects the field of candidates will ultimately move towards disavowing Trudeau’s signature carbon tax policy. Arnold pointed to the 2024 Alberta NDP leadership race as an example. In that contest, candidate Rakhi Pancholi first came out against the consumer carbon tax. “Pretty much the dominoes fell after that,” said Arnold, as the field of candidates eventually gravitated towards that position. If a leadership candidate demonstrates a 'compelling' attack to brand Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, pictured, that could appeal to Liberal members as they elect their next leader, said Arnold. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Arnold said Liberal Party supporters would also be seeking someone they perceive as having the political chops to go head-to-head with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.) in the general election. “They'll be looking for somebody who looks like they can stand up to Poilievre … is doing it in a way that feels like it would resonate with the broader public,” he said. He said the Liberals have been “sort of grasping” for a way to brand Poilievre over the last two years, trying framings such as “Pierre doesn't care” or “maple MAGA,” but have not “really landed on what that defining Poilievre brand is.” “If one of the candidates in this race sort of comes up with something that feels like it's a compelling way to talk to Canadians, and convince them that Poilievre is not the right choice for prime minister, that could have a lot of appeal,” said Arnold. ‘Two different audiences’: Coletto Abacus CEO David Coletto said candidates must do a 'delicate dance' to differentiate themselves but not 'firebomb' the Trudeau legacy. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Pollster David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said there is always the challenge in a leadership race of “speaking to two different audiences”—the party base and the general public—but that dynamic will be an even more “delicate dance” in this leadership race. “You can’t at once firebomb the Trudeau agenda, say everything that it did was wrong because a lot of those are actually the ones remaining who think, for the most part, what Trudeau did was pretty good,” said Coletto. However, amongst the general public, many of the top leadership hopefuls are perceived as very similar to Trudeau, so they must still find a way to differentiate themselves. An Abacus poll conducted on Jan. 6 and 7, and released on Jan. 9, found several of the top candidates expected to enter the race are perceived by a majority as similar to the outgoing prime minister. The poll found that 57 per cent of respondents said they view former finance minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) as similar to Trudeau, while 52 per cent of respondents said this about former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney. Former B.C. premier Christy Clark was the only one of the names polled to come in at less than 50 per cent, with 45 per cent of respondents saying they viewed her as similar to Trudeau. The same Abacus poll found the Conservatives in a 27-point lead, with 47 per cent support, compared to only 20 per cent for the Liberals. “We'll have to see with time whether the theory—which I think some, including myself, had—that if you get Justin Trudeau out of the way, it creates space for people to imagine somebody else and have conversations about the future,” said Coletto. “That still probably requires some time.” A leadership race playing out to the backdrop of tariff threats and rhetoric about annexation from incoming United States president Donald Trump will complicate the race, and create a dynamic that is 'extraordinary in our history,' said Coletto. Photograph courtesy of Gage Skidmore/Flickr However, not only do the candidates lack time, the race is also being carried out against the backdrop of Canada facing the threat of 25 per cent tariffs from incoming president Donald Trump, and his heightening rhetoric about annexing Canada through the use of “economic force.” “If the prime minister makes a decision that a leadership candidate disagrees with, how open are they going to be about disagreeing with their current leader and prime minister?” said Coletto. “It's going to create, I think, a dynamic that's pretty remarkable and extraordinary in our history.” Who can ‘save the furniture?’: Nanos Pollster Nik Nanos said “the key metric” that may emerge as the ballot question in the leadership race is: “who's the most likely to be able to save the furniture for the Liberal Party?” Pollster Nik Nanos candidates who cannot appeal to women and Quebec voters may be a 'non-starter.' The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade He said there are two key conditions party members might look at to make that decision: having appeal with women voters, and voters in Quebec. “The Liberal Party traditionally has never won an election … when they don't do well among women voters,” said Nanos. He added that for both the Liberals and the Conservatives, the only way they can be competitive is if they have a regional base from which to build outwards. Quebec is presently “the closest thing” the Liberals have to one, said Nanos. “If the Liberals, for example, elect a leader who is not popular in Quebec, it could lead to a complete unraveling of their electoral chances,” he said. “If you can't deliver on both , I think realistically, your campaign is probably a non-starter.” ‘There’s no time to think’: Kurl Pollster Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said the party has “no time to think,” and the process may lead to “the selection of a candidate who might make sense inside the tent, but doesn't make sense outside the tent.” Pollster Shachi Kurl said the Liberals have little time to 'take stock' of the bigger picture after a decade in power. Photograph courtesy of Angus Reid Institute “Ultimately, whomever emerges from this race in the end, needs to then turn around and make the case for why they're a better candidate than Pierre Poilievre,” she said, “which is a very different conversation.” “For Liberal members who believe that the chance of a fourth term is real and viable,” she added, “they will have a different mindset going into this leadership race than those who are of the view that the best the party can do is try to form official opposition.” She said this process may not afford the Liberals the chance to address some of the bigger issues they need to grapple with after a decade in power. “There's very little time for the Liberals to take stock of who they have been in the last 10 years, and who they want to be over the next 10 years,” said Kurl. “Which leads me to believe that they're probably going to have to do this more than once.” icampbell@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

Liberal leadership hopefuls face uphill battle to present themselves as ‘change’

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