Bracing for a geopolitical shock with Trump

OTTAWA—There is little doubt that with Donald Trump becoming U.S. president-elect that everyone is bracing for a geopolitical shock. Other than asylum seekers eating cats and dogs, and the need to secure borders and impose tariffs, Trump has barely discussed foreign policy, making it very difficult to predict his plans. Prepping for the arrival of the leader of the world’s biggest economy and military is further confounded because Trump does not operate from any hard ideological framework. He does, however, have a penchant for autocratic populists. This means that it won’t be Canada, but rather other like-minded leaders—such as those in Russia, India, and Israel—who will be the immediate beneficiaries of Trump’s second presidency. With Russia, Trump has already promised a quick end to the NATO proxy war in Ukraine—but not because he read the United Nations report estimating that 6.5 million Ukrainians have now become refugees, 3.7 million are displaced, and 30,000 are presumed dead. He doesn’t read. He simply has a soft spot for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, like Trump, also exudes an air of despotic edginess. Trump’s friendship with Putin should send NATO admirers running for cover. He is neither a big fan of that military alliance, nor of wars in general. He did not start any global conflicts while he was in the White House from 2016 to 2020. That should be good news for Canadian taxpayers. We may be off the hook for having to spend two per cent of our hard-earned GDP on NATO adventures and never-ending wars. Trump also has an affinity for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both of them can be expected to have carte blanche to carry on business as usual: Netanyahu with his killings in Gaza and Lebanon, and Modi with his mounting transnational crimes in Canada. Taken together, these seemingly disparate pieces paint a picture of Trump’s potential policy outlook. It will be rooted in economic protectionism, retreat from international institutions, and—as with all politicians—favours for backers. Among the current crop of Canadian political leaders, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is hands-down best suited to take on Trump. On trade and protectionism, Trudeau has a proven track-record of dealing with the Trump team, including renegotiating the old NAFTA deal, and pushing back on import duties. It’s also a sure bet that Trudeau has held on to the rolodex of close personal contacts in Trump’s inner policy-making circles. Similarly, on isolationism, Trudeau is better suited than, say, an inflexible agitator like Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Trudeau has partnered with others to safeguard UN organizations and international law by calling out India for its interference. Poilievre hasn’t even read the intelligence reports on India, and has often disparaged global institutions like the World Health Organization. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has a proven track-record of dealing with the Trump team, including renegotiating the old NAFTA deal, writes Bhagwant Sandhu. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Trudeau’s one weakness is China. In contrast, Trump is not keen to create a cold war with China. Instead, he wants to compete with trade and tariffs. Trudeau as such will have to end his “Indo-Pacific” obsession, a term that was coined by Nazi theorist Karl Haushofer in his 1924 book, Geopolitics of the Pacific Ocean, to create a new imperium for the joint German-Japanese war machine. Trump doesn’t appear to favour that kind of domination. His objective with China seems to be helping his high-tech backers get their hands on China’s burgeoning digital and green economies. Perhaps he will settle with China opening up its electric vehicle manufacturing and AI technologies to American-owned private capital. That said, he will not alter the basics of American geopolitical behaviour. Like former president Barack Obama found out, it's not easy to do. As a candidate, Obama promised to “keep hope alive,” but as president he launched ruthless airstrikes against Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, and regularly pushed regime changes all over the world. His only peace effort was a last-minute rapprochement with Cuba and Iran, which Trump undid with a quick stroke of the pen. Trump is now entering his second and last term in office. It is possible that given his self-aggrandizing attitude he may wish to build a lasting legacy. It could be on peace and detente to differentiate himself from his recent predecessors. Perhaps the visit to North Korea in his first term was to test drive the idea. He is also known to complain that he—not Obama—should have won the Nobel prize for peace. Either way, it is reassuring that Trudeau has practical experience in dealing with Trump. He has pragmatically protected our national interests and our health, as he demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic by going counter to the grain of Trump’s disconcerting anti-vax agenda. Poilievre hasn’t done either. It could hurt Poilievre if voters start questioning his ability to work sensibly with Trump ahead of the next federal election. He should do something about it. Mimicking Trump’s style won’t work. Poilievre should take a savvy approach, one that showcases statesmanship, a keen sense of international diplomacy, and a thoughtful demeanour. Bhagwant Sandhu is a retired director general from the federal public service. He has also held executive positions with the governments of Ontario and British Columbia. The Hill Times

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Bracing for a geopolitical shock with Trump

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is hands-down best suited to take on Donald Trump, having a proven track-record dealing with the Republican's trade attacks and protectionism.

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