Good morning, Prime Minister Poilievre—here is your agenda

KAMOURASKA, QUE.—It is sometime in the future. Pierre Poilievre has been elected to lead a Conservative government with an overwhelming majority. Ten days after election night, he has been to Rideau Hall to watch Governor General Mary Simon swear in his 20-member cabinet. He returns to his office to discuss next steps with his advisers before the cabinet is ushered in. Surprisingly, the Prime Minister’s Office team advocates for the “Costanza Strategy”—named after Jerry Seinfeld’s sidekick George Costanza, who discovered he could only succeed if he did the opposite of what his instincts told him. Of course, most new governments do the opposite of their predecessors and blame them, summarized by the finance minister’s declaration, “We had no idea things were this bad.” But this time, things are different. With 42 per cent of the popular vote, Poilievre has won in a landslide. But while many Canadians voted for Poilievre the hardliner, most supported his Conservative Party to get rid of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. And with the NDP and Liberals’ collateral damage, the Bloc Québécois is His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. So, the new PM and his entourage have a conundrum: govern as they campaigned and alienate half the population, or govern from the centre, and proceed gradually. Keeping in mind the challenge of Quebec, Poilievre decides to follow his campaign pronouncements, but govern as a moderate. So, on this first day, he cuts the carbon tax as promised, but also puts an end to the 2035 deadline for zero-emission vehicles. “Our oil and gas industry is not the enemy, nor are our car makers,” he says. “We contribute a tiny fraction of global emissions, and we are not going to suffer while China laughs at us and pollutes the Earth.” He increases the GST by two points, tagging the increase the Deficit and Environment Tax (DET) to remind Canadians “it was Trudeau who gave us this debt.” The tax will pay down $100-billion in debt over five years, and support private sector environmental innovation. He declares an end to government subsidies for battery plants. “If electric car makers want to come to Canada, they are welcome, but not because we put out a $20-billion welcome mat.” The cabinet agrees to deal with the size of government without taking a machete to it immediately. While during the campaign he denounced the 40 per cent increase in public servants since Trudeau came to power, the cabinet knows it would be draconian to fire tens of thousands of people overnight. Instead, he creates a Royal Commission into the Public Service of Canada, to be chaired by Don Drummond, a former assistant deputy minister of finance under Liberal Paul Martin, when the civil service was reduced by a fifth in 1995. The royal commission is the first in more than 60 years since John Diefenbaker gave the Glassco Commission a mandate to reorganize the federal public service. The PMO knows this royal commission will provide the blueprint for broad reductions in personnel and spending. He will strike another Royal Commission on Productivity, chaired by Robert Asselin of the Business Council of Canada. It will investigate all aspects of the economy, from provincial trade barriers to vocational training, from literacy to immigration. On the international front, the new prime minister will increase military spending and set a goal of 120,000 active military personnel. However, the National Shipbuilding Strategy will be frozen, and any further naval ships will be purchased from Taiwan and South Korea for a fraction of the price of Canadian-made ships. Meanwhile, his foreign policy will involve diplomatic and trade collaboration with the Anglosphere—the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia—as well as Europe, while casting a wary eye to Russia, China, and Iran. He declares Canada and India will jointly examine ways of improving their relationship. All of this he announces in his first address to Canadians that night. A calm and measured Poilievre promises to defend the Constitution, “which has been so neglected by the previous government,” and commits himself to promoting the best of Canada, never apologizing for our past, “for it is our future that matters most.” In the weeks that follow, his approval ratings soar to 80 per cent, even in Quebec. The die is cast. Andrew Caddell is retired from Global Affairs Canada, where he was a senior policy adviser. He previously worked as an adviser to Liberal governments. He is a town councillor in Kamouraska, Que. He can be reached at pipson52@hotmail.com. The Hill Times

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Good morning, Prime Minister Poilievre—here is your agenda

What would the early days of a Poilievre-led government look like? Andrew Caddell sketches it out.

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