B.C., N.B. elections forecast tough road for incumbents, with many Canadians ‘struggling’

The recent election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick offer a “masterclass” in the current perils facing incumbent parties, including the federal Liberals, says pollster Nik Nanos. Nanos told The Hill Times both provincial elections highlight the formidable obstacles to a government when “time for a change” numbers are high. On Oct. 21, the New Brunswick Liberal Party swept Blaine Higgs’ majority Progressive Conservative government from office. Under leader Susan Holt, the Liberals won 31 seats, compared to 16 for the Conservatives, and two for the Greens. Days earlier, the Oct. 19 B.C. election saw David Eby’s NDP majority government sustain heavy losses. The present count has the B.C. NDP at 46 seats in the legislature, compared to 45 for the Conservatives, and two for the Greens. However, with several seats decided by only a handful of votes, the parties are presently awaiting recounts and the arrival of mail-in ballots. Even a small shift in the tally of seats could affect the ability of either the NDP or Conservatives form a government. Taken together, these elections point to a pattern of provincial incumbents of all political stripes continuing to struggle. That’s a trend that’s seen in polling, other recent provincial campaigns, and elections globally. ‘A post-COVID malaise’ Former Liberal PMO staffer Dan Arnold, who was involved in polling for the New Brunswick Liberal campaign, said voters in Canada and around the world appear to be in “a post-COVID malaise about high inflation that is making it very difficult for any government to at least be comfortably re-elected.” “If you look at kind of the cycle of provincial elections between 2019 and 2022—so kind of the COVID cycle of elections—every one but Nova Scotia, the incumbent was reelected,” said Arnold, who is now chief strategy officer at Pollara. He said voters have now entered a new cycle where incumbents are losing, starting with the change of government in Manitoba in October 2023, which saw the NDP led by Wab Kinew end eight years of Progressive Conservative rule. Wab Kinew delivers a victory speech alongside his family and supporters after he was elected to the premier's office in Manitoba on Oct. 3, 2023. Photograph courtesy of X That trend has continued to plague even premiers who looked “invincible” not long ago, said Arnold, including Eby who is now “sitting at home waiting for votes to be recounted to find out if he will still be premier or not.” Arnold said this also applies to other previously seemingly unbeatable premiers, such as Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe who is in “a bit of a dog fight” to retain government in his province’s Oct. 28 election, as well as Quebec’s François Legault who is trailing in the polls, but has a longer runway until he must face voters. “So it is certainly looking like it's a much less friendly time for incumbents right now than it would have been later in kind of the COVID window,” said Arnold, “when a lot of the COVID governments were getting re-elected in Canada.” He noted this is also playing out around the world in countries like France and the United Kingdom. Canadians ‘not feeling’ better off That’s likely to persist until voters feel an improvement in their own pocket books, said observers. Inflation has been steadily dropping, coming in at 1.6 per cent year-over-year in Statistics Canada’s latest CPI report released Oct. 16. The Bank of Canada has been steadily cutting interest rates, implementing its fourth consecutive rate cut on Oct. 23—dropping its key overnight lending rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent. But despite those trends, that doesn’t mean the political climate for incumbents will shift right away. Outgoing New Brunswick premier Blaine Higgs lost his seat in that province's Oct. 21 election. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “Even if things are a little better, Canadians still don't feel positive about their personal finances,” said Nanos. “There's still a significant proportion of Canadians that are struggling to pay for the groceries or for housing.” Former Conservative staffer Laura Kurkimaki, now a vice-president at McMillan Vantage, said that despite lower inflation and interest rates, “people are still not feeling it.” She noted that anyone who locked into a mortgage or car payment earlier in the year is still paying high interest rates, and rent and grocery prices also remain high. Former NDP staffer Mike McKinnon said, in tough economic times, voters ‘look at who’s in charge and say it’s time for you to go.’ Photograph courtesy of Enterprise Canada Former NDP staffer Mike McKinnon, who has worked in federal and B.C. provincial politics, offered a similar view. “Incumbency is really difficult right now,” said McKinnon, who is now a senior consultant at Enterprise Canada. “When people are feeling the effects of global inflation, lack of access to health care, and rising housing costs, they look at who’s in charge and say 'it’s time for you to go.' So the change dynamic across the country is very strong.” Nanos said for the federal Liberals that means they need to try to push off the next election “as far as they can,” but he added “I'm not even sure whether with the current leader and the current policy direction whether that'll even be enough." He said even if the numbers on paper are better, the Liberals will be left campaigning on “joyless prosperity.” “The reality is that the next federal election will be a change election,” said Nanos. Former Conservative staffer Laura Kurkimaki said despite lower inflation and interest rates, ‘people are still not feeling' relief. Photograph courtesy of X The governing Liberals are looking at “an extremely tough, uphill battle,” agreed Kurkimaki, whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) stays or the party gets to choose a new leader. “It's just about whether or not Trudeau is now a drag on the party brand, which it sounds like he is,” said Kurkimaki, noting that in most polling the Liberal brand now out-polls Trudeau’s personal popularity. She added that in the New Brunswick election, Holt “distanced herself from Justin Trudeau throughout the entire campaign,” noting that’s something “you would not have seen a few years ago in Atlantic Canada.” Voters persuaded by 'immediate' help: Arnold Arnold says this environment suggests the federal Liberals' best chance to prevail in a change election is to “show voters that you are focused on what matters to them, and you are doing things to immediately help them.” Former Liberal staffer Dan Arnold said voters have ‘a much greater appetite’ for policies that offer ‘relief to people immediately.’ Photograph courtesy of X “From testing that I've seen in New Brunswick and a few other provincial elections …. probably things that are more immediate in nature, in terms of, you know, 'we're going to cut the gas tax on day one,' or 'we're going to take the tax off of energy prices on day one,'” he said. He said those policies seem to be “resonating at the provincial level,” and there will likely be “a much greater appetite” in a federal campaign for parties that convince voters they can offer “relief to people immediately, as opposed to longer term plans.” He said incumbents can also try to frame the opposition as offering a change that’s undesirable. “Anytime there is a strong desire for change, the only way to really get elected is to convince people that the change that is being offered is a change that will make your life worse,” said Arnold. David Eby’s NDP majority government in B.C. sustained heavy losses in the Oct. 19 election.The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “In B.C., you could say David Eby made a semi-successful job of doing that. In New Brunswick, Higgs was clearly unable to convince people that Susan Holt was a scary alternative.” icampbell@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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B.C., N.B. elections forecast tough road for incumbents, with many Canadians ‘struggling’

Premiers of all political stripes that once looked ‘invincible’ are struggling to get re-elected across the country, says pollster Dan Arnold.

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