No matter how you slice it, the military’s numbers don’t add up

OTTAWA—On Sept. 26, Chief of Defence Staff General Jennie Carignan appeared before the House National Defence Committee. The primary focus of the meeting was the status of the Canadian Armed Forces with regard to the ongoing recruiting and retention crisis, which has led to a crippling shortage of personnel in the Canadian military. Prior to his retirement, outgoing defence chief General Wayne Eyre had publicly acknowledged that the CAF was short 16,500 personnel of an authorized combined regular and reserve strength of 101,500. Carignan stated that, as of the end of August, there was a total of 92,798 Canadians in uniform. This would appear to suggest that Eyre's shortfall has been reduced down to 8,802 personnel. However, Carignan herself cautioned the committee by admitting that these numbers fluctuate on an almost-daily basis. Those familiar with the CAF will realize that the “on strength” numbers include what old-school sergeant-majors used to derisively refer to as the “sick, lame, and lazy.” In the current vernacular, this would include those personnel who are on extended sick, stress, parental, and retirement leave. Add to that number the 10,000 or so personnel who have been recruited but have only received basic training, and remain awaiting their trades training. The CAF defines this category as “non-deployable.” In other words, no matter which way you count it, the CAF numbers do not add up to an effective fighting force. Carignan explained that attracting civilians into recruiting centres is not the problem. Last year, more than 70,000 Canadians signed applications to join the CAF. However, due to bureaucratic red tape and lengthy security clearances, fewer than 5,000 applicants were actually recruited. As the personnel shortfall crisis deepens, the CAF has made changes to that system. Carignan said that in this fiscal year, the military is on target to recruit and train 6,400 personnel. This, she explained, will keep pace with the number of personnel expected to retire or release within that same timeframe. In other words, the current projection is to simply stop the hemorrhaging without actually pumping in any fresh blood to flesh out the ranks to full strength. According to Carignan, the reason for this half measure is the bottleneck in the training system. They simply do not have the people to train the necessary personnel to make up the existing deficit. The Liberal government—with its focus on the imminent upcoming federal election—seems content to carry forward the military shortfall well into the next decade. Eyre had cautioned that in that timeframe, the CAF would need to increase by 14,000 personnel in order to operate and maintain all the new weapon systems which are presently on the order books. Without an immediate course change, the CAF is hurtling towards an existential, tragic end. It does not have to be the case. It is not enough at this stage to merely tread water—or be drown-proof, to be more accurate. The training bottleneck needs to be immediately overcome, and the answer to this would be to re-enlist recently released military personnel as trainers. I believe that if the government were to make an appeal to the patriotism of these veterans—and to sweeten the pot by also offering significant cash incentives and bonuses—you would easily create a professional training cadre. It would not be a permanent solution, but rather a surge call-up of veterans and reservists to address the immediate shortfall. Once the CAF is returned to full strength, and the “non-deployables” are made deployable, things could return to a balance of recruiting to match releases. Given that Canada has let the Strategic Reserve list lapse, such a re-enlistment of trades-qualified veterans would require a partnership with Veterans Affairs Canada. Again, given the threat to the institution in which so many once served with pride, I have no doubt that there would be no shortage of volunteers for the cause. Scott Taylor is the editor and publisher of Esprit de Corps magazine. The Hill Times