The Three Stooges of Canadian defence

OTTAWA—Last week, CBC News published an analysis piece entitled “Thinking the 'unthinkable': NATO wants Canada and allies to gear up for a conventional war” in which pundits, historians, and defence industry advocates highlight just how unprepared Canada is to do exactly that. This CBC story quotes Vincent Rigby, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as saying that the chance of Canada being drawn into a wider regional conventional war with China or Russia is currently a 50-50 proposition. "Given the state of the world, we have to have contingency plans in place. And we are living in a world where it may not be a nuclear conflagration," Rigby told the CBC. "The next big war, it'll be a series. It will be a big regional war, or a series of regional wars, that Canada will be drawn into as a Western ally. So, we better have our plans in place, including for mobilizing industry."In the more than three decades since the end of the Cold War, Canadian politicians and senior military brass have abandoned any pretence of planning for an actual mobilization of citizens. On paper, there were vague plans to flesh out militia units to augment regular force combat formations, followed by a wider call-up of civilians to put Canada on a “war footing.” This would, of course, need to be done in tandem with a hastily beefed-up defence industry to produce the war materiel necessary to equip all of these citizen soldiers. At the outbreak of the First World War in 1914, Canada's population stood at around seven million people. By the end of that conflict, some 700,000 Canadians were in uniform, and Canadian factories and farms were a large part of the British Empire's war effort. To match that level of mobilization in 2024, Canada would need to enlist or conscript four million service members into the ranks of an expeditionary force. For those who closely follow the trials and tribulations of the Canadian Armed Forces, it is well known that due to the ongoing recruiting and retention crisis, the CAF is currently short 16,500 personnel of an authorized combined regular and reserve force strength of 105,000 service members. Good luck ballooning that number to four million in the case of NATO's predicted escalation of a conventional war with either Russia or China. That said, I'm not sure why exactly a modern conventional war between near-peers remains categorized as “unthinkable.” Prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, I, too, would have believed that such a conflagration resulting in such crippling casualties on both sides would have been completely “unthinkable.” However, after 31 months of conventional warfare raging in eastern Ukraine, with no end in sight, it has become all too real. The reaction from Canada has been like a scene out of The Three Stooges wherein when asked for directions, they all point in different bearings. The first Stooge—being the federal government—has given military equipment, weapons, munitions, and money to Ukraine to remain in the fight against Russia. However, despite draining both the financial coffers and the military's arsenal, no real effort has been made to replace these weapons systems and shells, nor towards even maintaining authorized troop strength, let alone expanding our combat capability. The second Stooge is the military brass. Prior to his retirement, then-chief of the defence staff General Wayne Eyre repeatedly called for Canadian industry to mobilize themselves and to go on a “war footing.” As a career soldier, Eyre can be forgiven for not understanding that in a liberal democracy, defence industries do not simply start cranking out weapons and munitions in the hope that someone will come along and purchase them. The defence industry—a.k.a. the third Stooge—keeps mum on this issue, rather than remind Canadians that they are in fact for-profit corporations, and for them to be seen lobbying for more government contracts would come across as bald-face profiteering from fear-mongering. Canada is not alone in this quandary as many NATO allies have also drained their existing arsenals to support Ukraine without ramping up their defence industry capacity. As a result, Ukraine continues to receive the lion's share of what NATO's factories can produce, while our munitions magazines remain at a perilously low level. One has to hope that Rigby's 50-50 odds on Canada being drawn into a full-scale conventional war in the near future are a little stacked in favour of scaring the bejeezus out of Canadians. However, these are undeniably dangerous times, and with the United States presidential elections looming south of our border, it does not appear that things will change any time soon. Maybe it's time for the Stooges to agree upon a single shared course of action. Scott Taylor is the editor and publisher of Esprit de Corps magazine. The Hill Times

The Three Stooges of Canadian defence

The federal government, military brass, and the defence industry are all pointing in different directions when asked for the path forward on our Armed Forces’ readiness.

Canada’s aging crisis and a call for reform in eldercare

As COP29 wraps up, will Canada finally stop funding fossils this fall?

Addressing the threat of antimicrobial resistance

The wisdom of Homer Simpson and Aaron Sorkin

Climate finance should target resilient food systems

Trump’s ‘America First’ plans may undermine global trade

Canada’s focus on protecting sovereignty in the North and in the Arctic is critical

National security, military experts call for Canada to enhance resources on Eastern flank in preparation for post Russia-Ukraine war scenario

How solid is the NATO alliance?

Is the West hanging Ukraine out to dry?

NATO’s new strategy and the Canadian defence industry

News

Get free news updates

Opinion

Submit a guest opinion article

resources

Advertise

subscribe

get help

Get free news updates

Submit a guest opinion article

The Three Stooges of Canadian defence

The federal government, military brass, and the defence industry are all pointing in different directions when asked for the path forward on our Armed Forces’ readiness.

Get The Weekend Point of View Newsletter