The Bloc’s byelection win signified little

MONTREAL—In the late 1970s, René Lévesque’s Parti Québécois government dominated the province, passing bills on everything from the environment to anti-scab legislation to the referendum law. As a young reporter in Montreal and Quebec City, I had a front-row seat to those legislative changes, and the political upheaval at the time. Paradoxically, while the PQ held a majority of seats in the National Assembly, they lost every byelection from 1978 to late 1980. Then they lost the referendum in May 1980 by a margin of 60 per cent to 40. Things looked grim for Lévesque, and very good for then-Quebec Liberal leader Claude Ryan. Then, in the spring of 1981, Lévesque won another majority in the general election. The moral of the story is this: byelection results may be a harbinger of the future, but they are hardly a guarantee. That is why I take analysis of the Bloc Québécois' victory in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun with a grain of salt. To begin with, the turnout was anemic. Of 80,000 eligible voters, only 31,000 people cast their ballots. So, the Bloc candidate, Louis-Philippe Sauvé, won the riding with about 9,000 votes—28 per cent of votes cast, but just over 11 per cent of the possible votes. His predecessor in the 2021 election received 1,700 more votes, or 22 per cent of the 47,000 votes cast. This is a sign Bloc voters are mordus, or diehards. They are inclined to vote, support their cause of Quebec independence, and have a good ground organization to get out the vote. The Bloc organizers had a few hidden advantages, First, disaffected anglophone and ethnic Liberals, who make up a significant portion of the riding, were reluctant to endorse a Trudeau government that’s ignored them at every turn. Second, their hand-picked candidate, LaSalle councillor Laura Palestini, was hardly a household name. And third, the Bloc candidate’s last name was the same as the favoured NDP contender, Craig Sauvé. With a margin of victory of about 700 votes over the NDP, that’s about two votes per ballot box. Two voters in each box could easily have erred and voted for the wrong Sauvé. And given there were 91 names on the mammoth ballot, errors could easily have occurred. As it was, Craig Sauvé did not do himself any favours: in an ill-advised move to appeal to Muslim voters and those sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, he distributed a pamphlet with the Palestinian flag, saying he would “stop the genocide in Gaza,” as if a single MP could intervene in a foreign war. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did not campaign in the riding, but in an attempt at an electoral “Hail Mary,” he appeared in the Montreal English media in the last days criticizing the Quebec government of François Legault for its attacks on English institutions, and its mean-spirited language legislation, Bill 96. Too little, too late. The byelection was called to replace former minister of justice David Lametti who resigned in January after Trudeau dropped him from cabinet last summer. There were rumours he would call for Trudeau’s resignation if the Liberals lost, but discretion has more likely been the better part of valour for the newly minted corporate lawyer. Lametti had a reputation as a hard-working constituency MP who was well known, well liked, and a genuine intellectual. His putative successor—Palestini—suffered by comparison. While Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet and his allies in the Parti Québécois were crowing about the win, their foothold in Montreal is bound to be short-lived. When Blanchet talks about voting to “protect Quebec’s interests,” he is not talking about Anglo and ethnic Quebecers. And when his economic demands to support Trudeau in confidence votes revolve around dairy supply management in rural Quebec, and increases in Old Age Security, he hardly appeals to young, urban voters. No matter who leads the Liberals into the next election, a larger turnout in the general election will benefit the party in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. This small victory is not a sign of anything, even if the Bloc does clean up elsewhere in Quebec next year. However, a massive Conservative tide could sweep up Bloc seats in 2025, as Quebecers like to be on the winning side of elections to get their share of government largesse. In short, the province’s politics remain unpredictable. Andrew Caddell is retired from Global Affairs Canada, where he was a senior policy adviser. He previously worked as an adviser to Liberal governments. He is a town councillor in Kamouraska, Que. He can be reached at pipson52@hotmail.com. The Hill Times

The Bloc’s byelection win signified little

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The Bloc’s byelection win signified little

Given the anemic turnout, lengthy ballot, and similar names, the byelection results in Montreal may be a harbinger of the future, but they are hardly a guarantee.

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