NDP will feel unencumbered without supply-and-confidence agreement

As with every pre-election sitting of a minority Parliament where an opposition party is currently dominating the polls and showing momentum—money, crowds, etc.—this fall's sitting will be full of fireworks; a parliamentary sitting which will offer Canadians a preliminary look at the tone and positioning of the next election campaign taking place at some point within the next 13 months. The NDP, now outside of the constraints of the supply and confidence agreement (SACA) will feel unencumbered to pull its punches on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives in turn will be relentlessly haranguing the NDP to help them bring down the government at the earliest opportunity. In response, the New Democrats will use every opportunity to seize the SACA pivot to position itself as the best party to take on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in the next election. The Liberals, meanwhile, will continue to battle against ambivalence of many checked-out MPs and staffers as they keep one eye on the door ready to bolt at any chance to make an elegant exit before likely defeat. Functionally, the SACA gave both Liberals and NDP members on House committees an incentive to collaborate, and ensured they functioned and stayed focused on moving forward on policy priorities. What impact will no longer having the SACA on the functionality of committees? How will the Liberals seek to move forward on their existing meagre legislative agenda? The next few weeks will illustrate whether this Parliament has any capacity to get work done. If no such appetite exists, the life of Parliament is in severe jeopardy as the Liberals face increasing challenges to stave off losing confidence. Smart money is on this being the most toxic and least productive parliamentary sitting ever. Adding to the SACA fallout will be the rush to define how the outcomes of today’s two byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg will play in the tone and productivity of the fall session. If the Liberals lose Lasalle-Émard-Verdun to either the Bloc or the NDP, it will deepen the crisis in Trudeau’s leadership. In the House, Liberal MPs will be sheepish while opposition MPs on all sides will be merciless in their attacks. On the surface, losing an incumbent seat in a byelection this late in the government’s tenure is not a cause for panic. But there is far more at stake for the Liberals in this byelection than usual. A loss in Lasalle-Émard-Verdun would come less than three months after a devastating loss in another safe incumbent seat: Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont. Liberals would be foolish to chalk-up the loss to mere local conditions as these two reliably safe Liberal seats represent the core of their traditional voting coalition: moderate, urban voters. Two options for the Liberals to prolong the life of this Parliament include turning to the Bloc Québécois for support on confidence motions, or seek to prorogue Parliament to buy enough time to shake things up. Turning to the Bloc for support is optically sub-optimal. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has already begun to draw up his list of demands in exchange for his party’s support. And while then-Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper governed with the support of the Bloc when he needed votes to survive confidence motions in his minorities, Trudeau pursuing the same path may risk alienating one of the last remaining elements of his base: Quebec federalists. (How bad has it gotten when a prime minister has to rely on separatists to hold onto power?) If Trudeau loses the Sept. 16 Montreal byelection, there will be renewed calls for him to either completely re-boot the government’s agenda, or step down. But with the cover of stability that SACA gave Trudeau now gone, how could he do either with the threat of being toppled at any time being now a greater possibility? Prorogation would offer the government a safe time-out to develop a more coherent legislative game plan and pre-election message. It also affords the Liberals a safe space to hold a short leadership contest. Prorogation worked for Harper in late 2008 when it became clear that he had lost confidence of the House, and needed to buy time for conditions to change. Change they did. And this was despite howls of protest from the opposition about how “undemocratic” the tactic was. In the aftermath the Liberals cratered, changed leaders, supported Harper’s budget, and the Conservatives governed until spring 2011. The gambit paid off, and the Conservatives survived a confidence crisis. Between the Bloc and the hard place Trudeau’s currently in, he may find a route to safer electoral shores with a bold new legislative agenda. Brad Lavigne is a partner at Counsel Public Affairs. He served as the New Democratic Party’s 2011 national campaign director, and was principal secretary to then-leader Jack Layton. He is the author of the best-selling book Building the Orange Wave, The Historic Rise of Jack Layton and the NDP. The Hill Times

NDP will feel unencumbered without supply-and-confidence agreement

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NDP will feel unencumbered without supply-and-confidence agreement

The Conservatives will be relentlessly haranguing the NDP to help them bring down the government at the earliest chance.

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