Four lessons from Germany’s state elections

TORONTO—Much ink was spilled earlier this month about the rise of both the far-right and far-left parties in two German state elections in the former East Germany. Alternative for Germany (AfD) landed its first-ever state election victory in Thuringia, and came in second in Saxony. Far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW, named after its charismatic leader Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) landed two solid third-place finishes in its electoral debut in both states. German elections use the mixed-member proportional representation (PR) system. Voters get one vote for a direktmandat, i.e. local representative, and one for a party, with a five per cent threshold for list seats. Most party leaders have their name on both a local ballot and the statewide ballot, effectively guaranteeing their entrance into Parliament—barring a complete wipe out. From protest to direct mandate AfD’s win in Thuringia made for alarming headlines as the last far-right party to win a state election was the Nazis in 1932. This was expected given the AfD won the state in the 2021 federal election. What is more remarkable is AfD winning the biggest share of direktmandats, ending the Christian Democrats’ (CDU, the mainstream centre-right party) continual claim since German reunification as the party with most local representatives. The AfD’s one-third of the constituency vote is a meteoric rise from its 2.2 per cent share two elections ago. Milton Chan is an electoral systems nerd who has volunteered on campaigns in Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Photograph courtesy of Milton Chan Why does that matter? Local members provide the party with sustained publicly funded grassroots infrastructure. The impact of AfD holding more than half of these states’ federal constituencies was clear in these elections. Free Democrats (FDP)—the junior partner in the federal governing coalition—flip back and forth between a sizable caucus to zero seats both in Berlin and in state legislatures because they never had a secure hold on many direktmandat. Their parliamentary absences devastated party infrastructure, and impeded grooming of future leaders. In Canada, many people dismiss the emergence of Maxime Bernier's People’s Party, thinking their support is spread too wide to be a force. As the AfD has demonstrated—and the B.C. Conservatives will likely soon demonstrate in Canada—it might take a while for them to win local contests, but when they do, they will do it with a vengeance. Lesson: It would be a mistake to think an extremist party can’t win a majority of the seats in a first-past-the-post system. Not my government leader Germans are used to coalitions. PR works fine in delivering governments that reflect the voters’ will when there were two dominant parties, plus a couple of smaller parties. With German voters—just like Canadians—increasingly drawn to other options, more parties surpassed the five per cent threshold and won seats. Fractious parliaments make forming a coalition unpredictable, giving the smaller parties disproportionate leverage—sometimes immediately after electoral thrashings. The outgoing Thuringia government is a particularly perverse example of PR going awry. The Left Party—successor of the Communists—came to power in 2014 with support from centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), previously the CDU's governing partner. Why is this perverse? The governing CDU not only won that election, but also with an increased mandate. Its junior partner—that election's biggest loser— kept their cabinet jobs by ousting the winner and putting the communists in charge. The third-partner Greens were not in government after making major gains in the two previous elections, but got a fifth of the cabinet seats despite declining support in the next two. Thuringia’s new government will again be a perverse irony. CDU will return to government with 10 per cent less support than when it was ousted. It will likely lead a three-way coalition plus a confidence deal with a fourth party. It will be beholden to two far-left parties despite overwhelming acceptance by its supporters of a coalition with AfD. Ignoring voters’ wishes when they tell you to jump into bed with neo-Nazis is probably the right stance to take, but certainly one that will leave voters feeling unheard. Lesson: PR is just as likely to leave voters feeling their votes don’t matter. Governing ménage à trois With more small parties gaining seats, winners are winning with smaller mandates. SPD won the last German election with only 25.6 per cent. Olaf Scholz, the first chancellor commanding less than 30 per cent popular support, leads a "traffic-light" coalition with the Greens and the regulation-cutting Free Democratic Party. Thuringia and Saxony will likely both end up with CDU-led governments. Given CDU also refuses to govern with the Left, in both states they will need the new ultra-left BSW along with SPD. These threesomes would obviously be out of convenience. Wagenknecht is a former federal leader of the Left who left the party over refugee, vaccination, and Ukraine—three issues on which the Left and the CDU actually align. These threesomes will also likely be fleeting. When parties with diametrically opposed politics jump into bed together, the fun won’t last very long. Just look at the public sniping between FDP’s federal finance minister and Green's foreign minister. Such public brawls are driving down support for all three governing parties, which perversely keeps them closer together despite their mutual contempt. They all know an election would spell certain demise for their government, and, for the smallest partner, likely their parliamentary existence. Lesson: More parties in PR leads to more partners needed to govern. More partners equals more public disputes, which equals more voter dissatisfaction. Make Thuringia great again The rise of these fringe parties is seen as a response to the failure of mainstream parties—imported from West Germany—in bringing standards of living closer to their neighbours'. Thuringia’s location between three of Germany's five wealthiest states has brought little spillover prosperity, but an exodus of youth to those states, contributing to their respective growth. But the bitterness goes even deeper. AfD’s nationalistic message reminds Thuringians of their glory days as the German Empire's cultural centre, provoking resentment for the unfulfilled promises of reunification. This playing out here is no coincidence. Thuringia is where the Nazis first tasted governing power, one of only three states—the other two no longer exist—where they legitimately won elections before Adolf Hitler took over the country. Lesson: Left feeling unheard, it is a matter of time before voters are angry enough to give the extreme option a majority—neo or otherwise. Milton Chan is an electoral systems nerd who spends too much time editing Wikipedia, and programming spreadsheets. He has volunteered on campaigns in Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Hong Kong, and Taiwan. A bleeding-heart Liberal partisan, Chan has a knack for managing nomination and leadership campaigns. He is ramping up his Duolingo lessons in hope of speaking good-enough German to volunteer in the 2025 German federal election. The Hill Times

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Four lessons from Germany’s state elections

Left feeling unheard, it is a matter of time before voters look to the extreme options.

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