From soap to votes: navigating uncertainty in marketing and political campaigns

I attended the Next Campaign Summit in Toronto this week not as a politico, but as a marketer with an interest in politics. I thought it was an important distinction. Until the panelists started to speak. The get-together was described as "Canada's first non-partisan event focused on political campaigning, innovation, and modern technology." Multi-partisan would be more accurate. Éric Blais is president of Headspace Marketing in Toronto. Photograph courtesy of Éric Blais The first panel discussion—which included folks associated with the Ontario Progressive Conservative, Liberals, New Democrats, and the Greens—offered insights into each party's preparedness should Premier Doug Ford call an early election to manœuvre around a possible federal election sooner than later, and the potentially devastating impact of the RCMP's investigation into the Greenbelt scandal. I'm not one to dismiss this as a parlour game, but it sure seems to be consuming a lot of time and effort. The ballroom and the sponsors' hall were filled with what looked like a representative sample of the political consultants ecosystem involved in planning and running political and advocacy campaigns at the federal, provincial, and municipal levels. One of the presentations by a firm that develops political platforms was particularly candid about how elections can be won without them simply by promising a buck-a-beer and a highway. This speaker also said out loud what I suspect many of these politicos were thinking: regular marketing folks don't have the sophistication required to really get the serious business of policy. I expected he is right. Yet, throughout the day, I learned that political strategists and all those who support them deal with the same uncertainty and challenges we deal with selling soap. Fewer people listen to what we're saying Jeremy Broadhurst, the recently "former" Liberal Party of Canada campaign director, was particularly candid. In an age of unprecedented ability to reach voters, he said they have the power to tune parties out, noting they can also curate their own news. His solution? We need to trigger their curiosity. In his business—as in mine—that's easier said than done. Perhaps it's one of the reasons he's leaving. Perception is reality Anne McGrath. The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster Consumer perceptions determine market realities. The same is true for voters. Anne McGrath, the principal secretary to federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, was also candid about how this is a challenge for him and the party. McGrath said the NDP hasn't found a way to capitalize on its strength, adding New Democrats are fighting the perception that they are not able to win. Don't worry about what you can't control Gerald Butts. The Hill Times file photograph Gerry Butts, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's former principal secretary, told attendees to focus on what you can control, and don't worry about what you can't. It will only bring you down. Again, easier said than done. Just think of all those corporations having to reverse their diversity, equity, and inclusion policies under pressure from Make-America-Great-Again influencers on social media. Fred DeLorey, the national campaign manager for the Conservative Party of Canada in 2021, put it in more immediate terms for this group: when you're 20 points ahead, your No. 1 priority is to avoid a costly mistake. But can the leader be controlled, or show self-control as people get tired of his aggressive challenger schtick? Expiration dates Many presenters spoke with the certainty of scientists equipped with black boxes that can pretty much guarantee the desired outcome. Yet, the more battle-scarred ones seem to all acknowledge that, at some point, the jig is up. Politicians and political parties all have expiration dates. It's also true in commercial marketing: Both Kleenex facial tissues and Delissio frozen pizzas have recently disappeared from Canadian stores. The power of in-person Nick Kouvalis, the principal strategist of Campaign Research, boldly declared that he's not a fan of digital. He believes in the power of human connections, face-to-face interactions, and meeting voters through door-knocking. The same hype around the concept of "performance marketing" in commercial advertising has resulted in a shift away from less measurable brand-building strategies and tactics. Qualitative vs. quantitative There are, of course, data scientists who will argue that, with the right data and mathematical models, everything can be predicted. Some made a convincing case. But two veterans had a somewhat less enthusiastic take on what the "quants" bring to campaigning. Kouvalis made a strong case for qualitative research, i.e., focus groups, as the best way to uncover the necessary insights from voters. He cited the example of former Toronto mayor John Tory who wanted to run on the notion of "best city." Focus group participants couldn't relate. Instead, they helped articulate the promise of a livable, affordable, and functioning city. Butts made the case for "data-driven storytelling." But he also told the crowd that his best ideas came from talking to folks in his native Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia. Politicos, he added, would do well to have dinner more often with non-politicos, and just listen to what they're saying, applying the 80/20 rule—meaning shut up 80 per cent of the time. Go broad and narrow at the same time Marketers and sales professionals call it the "funnel"—with actions at the top, middle, and bottom—going from awareness to consideration, to preference, and eventually adoption/conversion. If only it were this simple. David Clark, the deputy chief of staff to Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles, said something I wish marketers selling goods and services heard more often: microtargeting is great, but parties need a broad-reaching message. He added that the ability to be more precise with geotargeting is meaningless if you don't have something that will resonate more broadly. Count on AI, but don't rely on it For a conference about innovation and modern technology, artificial intelligence was seen as little more a game-changer than fax machines were once thought to become as the way to reach voters in their homes. Canada Proud founder Jeff Ballingall offered his recipe for effective social posts: state a fact, follow with an emotive hook, state another fact followed by an emotive hook, and call to action. He and his team use generative AI to get started on drafts, but right now, everything needs to be fine-tuned and vetted by humans who don't hallucinate like ChatGPT does. Prioritize consistency over virality Alex Paterson, YouTube’s Civics lead, offered tips on creating effective videos. The same presentation would be relevant to folks marketing chocolate bars or deodorant. Don't confuse a 'yes' or 'no' campaign Tim Gray. Photograph courtesy of Environmental Defence Canada Tim Gray, the executive director of Environmental Defence Canada, made an important distinction between 'yes' and 'no' advocacy campaigns. The former is a campaign advocating for a solution to a problem. The latter is a campaign pushing back on a bad thing (like the development of the Greenbelt). The two require completely different strategies. Yet, we often see social marketing campaigns—promoting smoking cessation, for example—that attempt to use the same approaches used for "yes" campaigns. Perhaps more marketers from the commercial world should attend the next Next Campaign Summit next year. We have more in common than I thought. Éric Blais is president of Headspace Marketing in Toronto. The Hill Times