Pivoting north as a middle power in a multipolar Arctic

The Arctic, once a peripheral region, has emerged as a pivotal geopolitical stage. As the world order transitions from unipolarity to a more multipolar landscape, competition for influence and resources in the high north has intensified. For Canada, a nation with extensive Arctic territory and a long-standing commitment to the region, this dynamic presents both challenges and opportunities. Canada occupies a unique geopolitical position. Unlike many other middle powers, its vast Arctic domain grants it a degree of leverage disproportionate to its overall global influence. This geographic advantage, coupled with its rich natural resources and stable democratic institutions, positions Canada as a key player in shaping the Arctic’s future. However, the challenges are substantial, requiring a sophisticated and nuanced approach to policy-making. The actions of Russia and China in the Arctic pose significant threats to Canadian, North American, and NATO security interests. Russia, with its extensive Arctic coastline and robust military presence, has been assertive in staking its claim to the region. Moscow’s military modernization, including the deployment of advanced weapon systems, underscores its determination to project power in the Arctic. While overt aggression may be tempered by economic vulnerabilities, Russia’s capacity to disrupt critical infrastructure, such as undersea cables or satellite communications, poses a significant risk. China, adopting a more economically focused approach, is also increasingly active in the Arctic. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, while primarily focused on Eurasian connectivity, has implications for the region. China’s growing economic and technological influence, coupled with its strategic ambitions, necessitates close monitoring and a proactive Canadian response. Navigating this complex geopolitical landscape requires a delicate balance between co-operation and competition. While international collaboration on issues such as climate change and marine pollution is essential, it must not come at the expense of protecting national security. Canada must be prepared to defend its interests vigorously if necessary. Investing in a robust military presence is essential for deterring aggression and protecting Canadian sovereignty. This includes upgrading northern bases, developing ice-capable vessels, and enhancing surveillance capabilities. However, military power alone is insufficient. Diplomacy remains a critical tool for managing competition and building alliances. Canada must strengthen its relationships with key Arctic and non-Arctic partners, including the United States, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland. NATO, as a cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security, also plays a crucial role in ensuring stability in the region. Indigenous Peoples are the original stewards of the Arctic, and must be full partners in its governance and development. Their deep knowledge of the land and its resources is invaluable. Canada must work closely with Indigenous communities to ensure that their rights, cultures, and livelihoods are protected and promoted. Empowering Indigenous leadership will not only strengthen Canada's Arctic governance but also enhance its international standing as a champion of Indigenous rights. Climate change is an existential threat to the Arctic, and poses significant challenges for Canada. As the region warms, new opportunities for resource extraction and shipping emerge, but so do risks such as coastal erosion, permafrost thaw, and extreme weather events. Canada must lead international efforts to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. By positioning itself as a global leader in clean technology and sustainable development, Canada can both protect the Arctic environment, and create new economic opportunities. The Arctic's rich natural resources offer both economic opportunities and environmental challenges. Canada must balance the desire for economic growth with the need to protect the region's delicate ecosystem. Sustainable development, in partnership with Indigenous communities, should be the guiding principle for resource extraction. A well-regulated and transparent resource management framework is essential to ensure that the benefits of resource development are shared equitably. The Arctic is also a critical component of global trade and transportation. As sea ice diminishes, new shipping routes are opening up, offering economic opportunities but also posing challenges for maritime safety and security. Canada must invest in icebreaker capabilities, marine rescue services, and environmental protection measures to ensure the safe and sustainable use of these new trade routes. This country's Arctic policy must be grounded in a clear understanding of its role as a North American middle power. This means balancing national interests with global responsibilities. It involves building strong alliances, investing in military capabilities, promoting economic development, protecting the environment, and empowering Indigenous Peoples. The Arctic is a region where Canada can demonstrate leadership. By effectively managing its Arctic territory, we can enhance its global standing, contribute to regional stability, and ensure the well-being of its citizens. The challenges are significant, but so too are the opportunities. Canada must seize this moment to shape the Arctic's future. Andrew Latham is a tenured professor at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minn., a Senior Washington Fellow with the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy in Ottawa, and a non-resident fellow with Defense Priorities, a think tank in Washington, D.C. He has a PhD from York University, and previously worked as a consultant to the Department of National Defence, and what was then-known as the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. The Hill Times

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Pivoting north as a middle power in a multipolar Arctic

By effectively managing its Arctic territory, Canada can enhance its global standing, contribute to regional stability, and ensure the well-being of its citizens.

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