Trump administration would put ‘robust emphasis’ on fossil fuels

TORONTO—If there was any lingering doubt that climate change poses a huge risk—and a rising cost—to Canada, the devastating fire in Jasper, Alta., should convince even the most adamant deniers that climate change is real and will not go away. Its impact will become worse here and around the world and even more so if we fail to act decisively. Yet we face elections in the United States (this year) and Canada (next year) that could result in governments almost certainly committed to weakening rather than strengthening efforts to seriously confront what many experts see as the planet’s greatest existential threat. Both the U.S. presidential contender, Donald Trump, and Canada’s potential new prime minister, Pierre Poilievre, have a record of downplaying the seriousness of climate change and favouring the interests of the oil and gas industry. Both seem prepared, in effect, to put the future lives of our youngest citizens at serious risk in order to opportunistically gain votes now. In the U.S., a win for Donald Trump as the next president could lead to a drastic pullback from efforts to decarbonize the economy. According to a recent commentary on Trump’s plans from the Washington think tank, The Brookings Institution, a Trump administration would put “a robust emphasis” on fossil fuels, drastically reduce environmental regulations, and scale back renewable energy policies. He would once again pull the U.S. out of global climate commitments and negotiations under the 2015 Paris Accord, recently calling it a “rip-off of the United States." In Trump’s ambition for America First, the U.S. is the global fossil fuel superpower, driving his goal to strengthen U.S. ability to sharply boost oil and gas production. “Trump’s campaign has consistently emphasized a ‘return’ to fossil fuel dominance,” the commentary said, as a symbol of U.S. world power. He is a skeptic on wind and solar power and electric vehicles and is ready to abolish energy efficiency standards. Should Trump win and be sworn into office in January next year, then even before the potential election of a Poilievre government, we could very well see an aggressive campaign by oil and gas industry in Canada to match or align Canadian policy with the Trump administration. As it is, there are signs that the oil and gas industry is on strike, delaying environmental spending until it sees whether a Poilievre government is elected and will adopt light-touch regulation. While Poilievre said little on climate change when he ran for the Conservative leadership, and has said little since—except for his plan to axe the carbon tax—a government led by Pierre Poilievre as prime minster could almost certainly mean policies to weaken pressure on oil and gas companies to reduce emissions and strong support for increased fossil-fuel production. Poilievre has promised a climate plan as part of the Consertive 2025 election platform. He has hesitated to say whether he supports Canada’s commitments to reduce emissions under the 2015 Paris Accord and has not supported a net-zero emissions commitment for 2050. He has attacked the Clean Fuel Standards and the Clean Electricity Regulation initiatives of the Trudeau government. He has promised to end the ban on tanker traffic off the British Columbia coast, and abolish the federal Impact Assessment Agency, and would likely eliminate the federal emissions cap forcing oil companies to cut emissions by 38 per cent by 2030 from 2019 levels. Poilievre says he supports technology, not taxes, to address climate change, endorsing nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage, though he has little to say on solar and wind power. But the real question is why the Trudeau government has so abysmally failed to win wide public support for a coherent and credible plan to deal with climate change. While the Liberals like to point to climate action as one of their legacy issues, and they have made modest progress in achieving Canada’s international commitments on emission reductions, the majority of Canadians today oppose the centrepiece of the Liberal climate plan, the federal carbon tax. This is an appalling failure of leadership, particularly by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. There has been a failure to explain to Canadians why climate change is such a threat or to persuade Canadians on the urgency of acting. A realistic plan to deal with climate change will be highly disruptive, force major changes across the economy and society, be hugely expensive, and require many new skills and technologies. The cost of not acting is even higher. Yet Trudeau and his government have repeatedly failed to spell out what this means and how it will be accomplished. According to the Angus Reid Institute, support for the carbon tax has fallen, from a peak of 56 per cent in 2021 to 45 per cent late last year. Yet, at the same time, an Ipsos poll showed Canadians are looking for leadership on climate. The poll found that almost 60 per cent (59 per cent) agreed that if the Canadian government did not act now to combat climate change it would be failing the people of Canada. But the same poll found that barely a quarter of Canadians (26 per cent) agree Canada has a clear plan in place for how government, business and individuals are going to work together to address climate change. Moreover, a poll by Abacus Data last year found that a clear majority of Canadians believe even a Poilievre government would have a clear responsibility to address climate change more seriously. The devastating fire at Jasper, just one of many wildfires in Canada this year, is yet another warning that climate change is happening, and that it will get worse unless we fail to act with a sense of urgency. Failure to act will bring even more devastating consequences. That is the truth that must be hammered home, and it must be the basis of what we do if we care abut the kind of future world we may face. It ultimately is what leadership is about. David Crane can be reached at crane@interlog.com. The Hill Times

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Trump administration would put ‘robust emphasis’ on fossil fuels

Donald Trump would once again pull the U.S. out of global climate commitments and negotiations under the 2015 Paris Accord, recently calling it a 'rip-off of the United States.'

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