Trudeau is up against a worldwide phenomenon

OTTAWA—Turning things on their head, it comes down to a question like this for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: is it conceivable that you might not even be able to beat Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, of all people? That kind of query will become a lot more compelling if the Liberals lose their usually reliable partisan voters to the Conservatives in the June 24 byelection in the riding of Toronto–St. Paul’s, Ont. It’s been a Liberal stronghold, but this time the party is weighed down by fatigue with this government, an unpopular leader, general public discontent, and questions about Ottawa’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. On top of that, there is the long-standing tendency to use byelections to try to shake up the ruling party. With that in mind, the Liberals have pulled out the stops to prevent what would be a stunning symbolic loss, with a parade of more than a dozen cabinet ministers and Trudeau himself joining the campaign in Toronto-St. Paul’s. A Liberal failure in this instance could mean the end of the road for Trudeau as prime minister even though there is still more than a year of supposed bounce-back time before the next federal election. It would amplify the Conservatives’ huge lead in the polls, and show that—despite Poilievre’s lack of popularity—he is in position to help his party capitalize big-time in a “change election.” This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The incumbency factor that used to convey significant advantages on governments of the day come election time has lately turned into a curse across much of the world. The power of the anti-establishment mood sweeping the globe’s democracies was very much on display at last week’s G7 summit meeting in Italy, where only arch-conservative populist Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could claim to be in a politically solid position. The G7 leader who faces voters the soonest—United Kingdom's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak—is in a spot where his Conservative party could, according to pollsters, face “electoral extinction” in next month’s election. And that’s just part of the picture. According to a survey by Associated Press, the most notable feature as half the world’s population holds elections in 2024 is the angry mood of voters. Incumbents around the world—including in Poland, South Korea, Argentina, and South Africa—have been dumped in recent votes. In Latin America, for instance, leaders and their parties have lost 20 recent elections, AP notes. The foul mood in which voters find themselves can be tied to a wide range of causes. But it is generally agreed that it has roots in 21st century calamities such as the 9/11 attack in the United States, the 2008 financial crisis, and COVID. Added to that are the hyperinflation in the pandemic’s aftermath, the toxic extremism bred by social media, a collapse of confidence in government, and the political polarization and identity issues dividing people across the world into uncompromising tribes. In a poll last year in 24 countries, the Pew Research Center found widespread negative attitudes toward politics in most nations. Overall, about 59 per cent said they were dissatisfied with how democracy is working. In the U.S., it was 66 per cent; in Canada, 47 per cent. On another question, 74 per cent of those surveyed said “elected officials don’t care what people like them think.” In the U.S., it was 83 per cent; in Canada, 64 per cent. Current exceptions to the rebellious wave globally involve mainly anti-establishment populists such Italy’s Meloni and Argentina’s Javier Milei, known as the “madman” president. This deepening trend in recent years has been setting off alarm bells concerning the deterioration of democracy. “Democratic backsliding is occurring in an unprecedented number of wealthy countries once thought immune to such forces,” a study by Cornell University political scientists found. In Democratic Backsliding, Resilience and Resistance, the authors say threats to democracy are increasingly the result of autocratic leaders undermining key democratic institutions such as courts, media, and legislatures to take control of the political power structure. And earlier this year, democracy watchdog Freedom House said in an annual report that global freedom had receded in the previous 12 months for the 18th straight time, with political rights and civil liberties deteriorating in 52 countries in 2023. In Canada, the Conservatives’ Poilievre is tailoring his new-found populist persona to what is obviously a highly effective political game plan. His attacks on institutions such as the Bank of Canada, and attempts to sideline mainstream media are a good fit in the anti-establishment approach that is working well for politicians in much of the world who portray themselves as outsiders. And his claim that Canada is broken helps gin up the public’s angst and resentment of the current socio-economic situation. All told, June 24 will be an important marker as Canadians watch how all this plays out for their democracy and their futures. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times

Trudeau is up against a worldwide phenomenon

The federal byelection on June 24 will be an important marker as Canadians watch how all this plays out for their democracy and their futures.

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Trudeau is up against a worldwide phenomenon

The federal byelection on June 24 will be an important marker as Canadians watch how all this plays out for their democracy and their futures.

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