Does Trump still have a path to victory?

OAKVILLE, ONT.—American presidential nominee Donald Trump’s recent conviction in court will definitely hurt his electoral chances, but not as much as many people might think. In other words, even as a convicted felon, Trump could still get elected president. To see how this could happen, we simply need to examine the various strategic plays Trump can still make on the political board. And the first play he must make is to hang onto his base, to keep it loyal. That’s a key precondition for his victory. This is why Trump’s first reaction after the guilty verdict was to claim his trial was “rigged,” and that the judge was “highly conflicted.” Basically, Trump is portraying himself as a martyr who is being unfairly persecuted by the elites. The communication strategy behind this approach is straightforward; he wants to put his conviction in an emotional “us versus them” context, which he hopes will mobilize his supporters. After all, it’s a normal reaction for people to rally around their leader when it’s perceived that he or she is under attack from the other side. And so far, Trump’s stratagem seems to be working. Indeed, less than 24 hours after Trump was found guilty, his campaign reported nearly $53-million in donations—mostly from small donors. That’s a record. And the donations are still pouring in. So yeah, Trump seems to be holding onto this base. Now, at this point, you might be asking yourself, “How can people be so easily fooled? Why are they believing Trump’s version?" The answer is: it’s human nature for people to believe what they want to believe. As an old adage puts it, “We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.” My point is, if you’ve made an emotional investment to support Trump, it’d be extremely difficult for anything to shake that belief. Of course, just keeping his base loyal isn’t enough for Trump to win the next presidential election. For him to beat U.S. President Joe Biden, Trump still needs to win over some Democratic-leaning voters, some independents voters, and some undecided voters, a feat his conviction will undoubtedly make much trickier, but not impossible. One way he might do it is to employ what I call the “Crook versus Fool” strategy. What’s that? Well, it’s all about making the case that, yes, in the past my guy may have had some shady dealings and perhaps even some ethical lapses, but despite all that, he’s still smarter than the other guy. This approach resonates with voters because, at the end of the day, people would rather have a smart person running things instead of a foolish person, even if the smart guy might be a crook. Plus, keep in mind, Biden is extremely vulnerable to this line of attack given that his age is making many Americans suspect his cognitive abilities. A recent poll, for instance, indicated that about 60 per cent of Americans lack confidence in Biden’s mental capability to serve effectively as president. Needless to say, Trump’s strategists will do everything they can between now and election day to stoke that lack of confidence. Mind you, there’s still one variable out there that could stop Trump’s campaign in its tracks. I’m talking about the possibility that he’s jailed before the next election. It’s one thing to be called a crook, and a whole other thing to actually be behind bars. In fact, I don’t know of any political tricks or communication stratagems that could overcome the stigma of imprisonment. So, in a way, the judge who sentences Trump could determine his political fate. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times

Does Trump still have a path to victory?

The judge who sentences Donald Trump could determine his political fate.

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Does Trump still have a path to victory?

The judge who sentences Donald Trump could determine his political fate.

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