G7 faces toughest tests of its 50-year history

OTTAWA—Once host to a sleepy annual confab of interest mainly to economists and financial institutions, the G7 is now the fulcrum of the western world’s response to the conflicts dividing the globe. Not that the rich nations’ club bringing together the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Japan hasn’t had its share of crises. It began meeting in the early 1970s in hopes of steering the world economy through the recession set off by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ oil embargo. Over the decades, the exigencies affecting G7 leaders also included terrorism, the AIDS/HIV epidemic, the 2008 financial collapse, anti-globalization revolts, COVID, and the military aggression of one-time G8 member Russia. At the turn of the century, it was widely thought that the then-G8 was too narrow in its reach and would be surpassed by the G20, which counted among its members the G8 countries plus China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and other emerging economies. At the 2009 Pittsburgh G20 summit, leaders agreed the G20 should become the premier forum for addressing international economic issues. But the co-operative goals of the G20 have been rendered inoperative by the growing East-West divide pitting the U.S. and its allies against Russia and China. Committed to multilateralism, rules-based international trade, democracy, and the peaceful resolution of differences, the G7 is now at the forefront of anti-authoritarian forces in the deepening geostrategic struggle magnified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Critically, U.S. President Joe Biden—who meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other G7 leaders for the 50th summit this week in Italy—has renewed his country’s commitment to its global alliances after former president Donald Trump’s divisive, America-first position. Measures to help Ukraine in its efforts to fend off Russia’s invasion, and issues around China’s crucial support for Moscow’s war effort will top the leaders’ agenda in Italy. “Our concern is that China is increasingly the factory of the Russian war machine,” a U.S. official said last week. “You can call it the arsenal of autocracy when you consider Russia’s military ambitions threaten obviously the existence of Ukraine, but increasingly European security, NATO and transatlantic security.” The G7 could decide this week to issue a tough new warning of possible sanctions to smaller Chinese banks that have assumed an increasingly important role assisting Russia in evading western sanctions, according to Reuters. Leaders will also try to reach agreement on a plan to use windfall profits from the 260-billion euros of Russian central bank funds frozen worldwide to help finance Ukraine’s now-desperate war effort. The U.S. wants to use the annual profits to leverage a US$50-billion loan that would guarantee support for Ukraine through 2025, regardless of any changes in U.S. policy after the November presidential election. But European officials have consistently raised questions about the legality and means of implementing the plan. Unfortunately, with the summit coming days after the stunning right-wing gains in France and Germany in the European Parliament elections, it will be harder than usual to predict the positions of the G7’s European members on collective projects. On June 9, a shaken French President Emmanuel Macron—a strong proponent of European Union support for Ukraine—took the risky step of calling a national legislative election after his party was left far behind by Marine Le Pen’s ultranationalist National Rally in the EU parliamentary voting. The coalition keeping German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in power was weakened by the strong showing of the far right there. And Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—who hosts this year’s G7 meeting—greatly enhanced her prominence in Europe and at home when her far-right party won European elections in Italy. On top of that, Biden’s efforts to provide leadership on the other issue of global concern—the Israel-Hamas conflict—are unlikely to produce a significant consensus at the summit. G7 nations endorsed the U.S.’s recent ceasefire proposal, but significant differences on the war remain between the Americans and Europeans, who are represented by the EU at the summit. Most governments in Europe have backed the International Criminal Court’s efforts directed at the Israeli government's actions in Gaza. And Ireland, Spain, and Norway have formally recognized Palestine as an independent state. At the United Nations, France has come out in favour of Palestine being made a full member of that international body. All this amounts to a challenging situation for Canada and its G7 allies at this year’s conference—where the need for concerted action is all the greater because it might be the last G7 before Trump and his isolationist, Russia-curious mentality emerge again on the world scene. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times