Poilievre’s potential problem

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Not to rain on Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre’s parade, but I’d just like to note for the record that his current big lead in the polls carries the seeds of a potentially serious problem. And the seeds I’m talking about here might not be the ones you're thinking of. For instance, I’m not referring to one problem usually associated with high polling numbers, namely complacency. Yes, complacency is a risk, since confident party partisans, certain of their victory, might say something like, “We’re so far ahead in the polls, there’s no need for me to donate to the party. Heck, I could even stay home on election day.” Of course, if a race suddenly tightens up, such an attitude could lead to defeat. Plus, sometimes even party leaders can fall into the complacency trap. Indeed, many political observers believe former U.S. politician Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election because she failed to campaign in certain traditional Democratic states, believing (falsely) she couldn’t lose them. But I don’t think complacency will be a problem for Poilievre’s Conservatives. For one thing, Conservatives are nothing if not a loyal bunch; they’ll support the party both financially and in the voting booth, no matter where it stands in the polls. On top of that, Conservatives are now incredibly motivated. In other words, their fervent desire to topple the Liberal regime will almost certainly overwhelm any sense of overconfidence. Nor do I think Poilievre, given his aggressive, disciplined personality, will ever take anything for granted. The other problem often linked to a party that’s peaking well before an election, has to do with that most magical of all political forces: momentum. If Poilievre’s support in the polls has already peaked, it’ll be hard for him to claim momentum going into the next federal election, since it’s likely he’ll see a dip in support, as voters become more focused. This could give Prime Minister Justin Trudeau an opening to claim that his party possesses momentum, which could matter, since parties with momentum exude a special kind of energy, an energy that attracts voters. But I don’t think this will be a serious problem for Poilievre either. I say that because so far, he’s shown himself to be an energetic leader who seems to have the ability to generate enthusiasm, which can create the perception that he has momentum. And, in politics, perception is reality. Thus, if I don’t think the problem is either complacency or momentum, what do I think is the challenge facing the Tories due to their high polling numbers? Well, because it seems the Conservatives will win the next election in a landslide, it means the party is likely attracting a lot of people who might not be “real conservatives.” In fact, they’re what I call “power people.” By that I mean, they’re not individuals who are necessarily drawn to the Conservative Party through a desire to promote conservative ideals; they just want to be in power. This includes people seeking nominations to be federal candidates in the next election as well as all the political consultants hoping to get jobs with the party. So, what's the problem with this, you ask? The problem is the “power people” will inevitably clash with the true-blue conservative ideologues who form the party’s core. And that clash could get really ugly, really fast. After all, each side will be suspicious of the other, each side will believe the other is bad for the party. Simply put, power people never get along with ideologues. So, good polls today might cause a conservative civil war tomorrow. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant.