Crunch time for Netanyahu?

LONDON, U.K.—It has not been a good week for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyhu, chief decision-maker in the war in the Gaza Strip that has already cost at least 35,000 civilian deaths. (Some thousands of those 35,000 may have been Hamas fighters, but thousands of other civilians still lie undiscovered in the wreckage of their homes. The number stands.) The week began with the Israel Defence Force (IDF) launching its assault on Rafah, the last undestroyed city in the Strip—but at the same time, Hamas fighters reappeared in Gaza City, the first city the IDF destroyed. This feels like ‘whack-a-mole.’ Is something wrong with the IDF’s game plan? Then last weekend Netanyahu got two ultimatums from his allies. One came from Benny Gantz, an old political opponent of Netanyahu but a member of his three-man war cabinet. Gantz demanded that Bibi produce a credible plan by June 8 for ending the war, freeing the hostages, and creating a multinational civilian administration for Gaza. “If you choose the path of fanatics and lead the entire nation to the abyss, we will be forced to quit the government,” Gantz said. By “the abyss,” Gantz was referring to Netanyahu’s apparent preference for permanent Israeli military rule in Gaza, a prospect that also alarms the third member of the war cabinet, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. But the ultimatum that probably disturbed Bibi more came on Sunday from U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The United States does not issue formal ultimatums to its allies. Sullivan merely "urged" Netanyahu to connect his war to a “political strategy” for who runs Gaza afterwards (something Bibi has steadfastly refused to do). But reading between the lines, it was a message from U.S. President Joe Biden that he is running out of patience with Netanyahu. Then it got worse for Bibi. On May 20, Karim Khan, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), requested arrest warrants for six named individuals associated with the Gaza War on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity: two Israelis and three leaders of Hamas. Netanyahu led the Israeli list. The Israeli prime minister is no stranger to criminal charges. Indeed, he was on trial on corruption charges that could end with a jail sentence until the war paused that process (perhaps one of the reasons he is in no hurry to end the war). But he was outraged at being mentioned in the same breath as a bunch of ‘Palestinian terrorists.’ Naturally, all the suspects were ‘outraged.’ Yahya Sinwar, accused of being responsible for murder, hostage-taking, and rape, is not answering the phone, but a Hamas spokesman protested that the Court’s decision “equates victim with executioner.” (Rule No. 1: claim victim status.) Israel’s extreme-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, called the ICC move “a display of hypocrisy and Jew-hatred” that “we haven't seen since Nazi propaganda.” (Rule No. 2: claim victim status.) But the question remains: will any of this make the least bit of difference to the outcome? Certainly not the IDF’s little difficulties. The war is really over in the sense that Hamas clearly cannot be eradicated, but it will continue so long as it serves Netanyahu’s purposes (and Hamas’, too). Is Gantz’s threat to leave the government real? Maybe, but his departure would not bring the government down so long as Netanyahu’s ultra-nationalist allies remain loyal. Will Sullivan’s warning about Biden’s growing impatience work? Very unlikely because Netanyahu thinks he’s bluffing, and he’s probably right. The pattern is clear, from Israel’s 1948 War of Independence to the nuclear plant in Dimona, the establishment of West Bank settlements, and Israeli operations in Gaza today. The United States pleads for moderation, Israel pretends to listen, but does what it wants, and the U.S. eventually accepts it. The only thing that is likely to have a lasting effect, bizarrely, is the ICC’s seemingly quixotic attempt to bring the leaders of both sides to justice. It cannot actually put them in jail: 124 countries have ratified the ICC treaty, but most major military powers, including Israel and the U.S., shun it. However, having an arrest warrant in your name in 124 countries can be a major nuisance. The ICC’s prosecutor is not “one of the great anti-semites in modern times,” as Netanyahu predictably said. Khan is a British lawyer, born in Edinburgh, who became a King’s Counsel in London before going on to be an assistant secretary-general of the United Nations. Khan’s first act in his current job was to revive an investigation into the brutal actions of the Taliban and Islamic State. The second was an investigation into the Ukraine war that led to an ICC arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. For Khan, Bibi is just another day. Gwynne Dyer’s new book is Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World’s Climate Engineers. Last year’s book, The Shortest History of War, is also still available. The Hill Times

Crunch time for Netanyahu?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a bad week, but the pattern remains: the U.S. pleads for moderation, and Israel pretends to listen, but does what it wants.

The future of emissions trading: can Canada come up with a business case for a ‘businessman-president’?

From coast to core: why Canada’s cities hold the answer to economic stability

It’s time for Canada to embrace its true identity as a North Pacific, Arctic, and North Atlantic power

We need a Team Canada approach to safeguarding our vital interests during the Trump presidency

A missed opportunity in the U.S. election

Hannah Arendt had it right: when empathy dies, barbarity is never far behind

‘We believe in international law, or we don’t’: South African envoy counters claims of moral equivalence in ICC warrant applications

2024 leaving no wig unsnatched

Israel, Hamas, and the elusive ceasefire

Middle East: a bigger war?

News

Get free news updates

Opinion

Submit a guest opinion article

resources

Advertise

subscribe

get help

Get free news updates

Submit a guest opinion article

Crunch time for Netanyahu?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a bad week, but the pattern remains: the U.S. pleads for moderation, and Israel pretends to listen, but does what it wants.

Get The Foreign Policy Newsletter