Never-changing playlist of political hits growing stale

OTTAWA—The Victoria Day long weekend has come and gone. An election is still well more than a year away. To the surprise of everyone but perhaps the prime minister himself, Justin Trudeau remains in both that job and that of leader of the Liberal Party. While he has earned that right, continuing to exercise it doesn't seem to be to his party's advantage. As the very able Campbell Clark of the Globe and Mail wrote recently, we are already seeing the traditional campaign-style rhetoric from the Liberals, who are accusing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre of being soft on abortion rights. Regardless of the fact that Poilievre has said abortion rights won't be in jeopardy under a future Conservative government, the Liberals are doing their normal pre-election postering. As Clark notes, this early needling from the Liberals speaks to the deep political desperation the party feels being regularly 20 points behind the Conservatives in all major polls for the last few months. If Trudeau is to be believed when he says he will be leading his party in the 2025 election campaign, it creates a fairly predictable—but woefully disheartening—quandary. Specifically, if the two principal opponents are already locked in for 2025, it is unlikely we are going to see any substantive public discussion about the policy solutions needed for the next decade and beyond. Not that we ever get much of that anyway in a pre-campaign period, but it is even less probable if this dynamic holds. Trudeau is a known quantity, and while history will probably have some favourable recognition for his efforts on childcare, climate policy, and potentially other aspects of health like dental care, he no longer has enough political credibility with the public to be a change agent, or to even be seen as an innovator. When he opens his mouth to advance his government's positions, he’s more often not listened to, derided, or dismissed. Poilievre is less of a known quantity to the nation, but frankly, he doesn't need to be one now for his electoral journey to succeed. As he has been, Poilievre simply needs to position himself as the anti-Trudeau. The one who feels your pain around affordability and dislocation. The one who—if he gets elected—will bring you relief. He is the nation's painkiller. Have a conversation in any part of the country with a regular Canadian about the politics of the day, and it usually starts and ends with “the guy in power has been around a while, I am not happy with where things are, a change is probably in order.” I have edited out the expletives that are also part of that chat, but the dialogue structure is a pretty reliable one. The Trudeau-Poilievre tango doesn't have much room for much else, and that is not good. I saw a classic example of this last week when I was home in Newfoundland and Labrador where all the federal political chat was about the real possibility that the Conservatives could sweep the province's seven seats. Why? Again, local lore was that there was so much anger with the prime minister that it is the likely scenario. Meanwhile, our national news was about the wildfires forcing the evacuation of Fort McMurray, Alta., and surrounding areas. A brief reminder: it was early to mid-May when this happened, not the dead of summer. If there ever was a time when we ought to be hearing our leaders truly diving into genuine policy discussions about wildfires or other environmental disasters, it is now. But the best we are going to get is “carbon price” versus “end of the carbon tax.” Thoughtful, solution-based policy will be hard to find with the political climate battle lines drawn because the main players’ established routine of combat has little space for obstruction by the big issues of the day. That is a shame. If Trudeau were to step aside, a potential public benefit to that might be a change in the way the pre-election and election campaigns play out. A new player may at least cause enough disruption that the requirements for public discourse could be altered. Here’s hoping, but otherwise, hang on for the never-changing playlist of political hits. Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies and managing director of Abacus Data. He is a former adviser to Conservative political leaders. The Hill Times

Never-changing playlist of political hits growing stale

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Never-changing playlist of political hits growing stale

Thoughtful, solution-based policy will be hard to find amid the main players’ established routine of combat.

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