Disgruntled demagogue or holier-than-thou PM? These are your options, Canada

OTTAWA—Is there any scenario in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can squeeze out a victory in the next federal election? Not if you believe the polls. But, if you do some far-fetched computations, then maybe yes. To explore the argument, it is first important to establish two baseline parameters. One: the election is not due until October 2025. That’s nearly a year-and-a-half away. Two: Trudeau’s main contender, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, keeps digging himself into an ever constricting corner as an extremist ideologue, motivated by derision and reactionary dogma. The timing is important. It gives Trudeau more leeway to keep introducing real consequential programs like disability cash benefits, pharmacare, renter rights, child poverty reduction, first-time home buyers accounts, the list goes on. These socially-oriented initiatives are helping Canadians reassert and rediscover our national character as a kind and caring society. By contrast, Poilievre has spent his political assets to “axe the tax.” He sounds, at times, like an oil industry lobbyist. His motion on the carbon tax came and went without a whimper. The debate got overtaken by voices like Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, who promises to replace the carbon tax with even better policies for climate change. Poilievre doesn’t talk about climate change. Speaking of lobbyists, the discovery that the architect of Poilievre’s 2022 leadership campaign, Jenni Byrne, has a cozy office connection with a corporate lobbyist firm is not very helpful. Instead of distancing himself from her, Poilievre tried to weasel his way out. He called corporate lobbyists “utterly useless” because, according to him, they don’t represent the values of the working class. OK, fine. So why are they running your campaign? There are other contradictions. His needless attacks on the LGBTQ+ community, lack of nuance in policy debates, dismissal of social programs as a waste of money, and sporadic chumming around with right-wing fanatics all point to an odd type of callousness. If Poilievre is not careful, his words and actions may coalesce eventually to pigeonhole him as an inconsiderate opportunist. As it stands, he is already tied with “none of the above '' for best prime minister. If this keeps, up Poilievre could conceivably drag down the Conservative Party, which is up in the polls, but hasn’t moved much since peaking last year. This is relevant because elections are not about parties. They are about leadership. Lucky for Poilievre, Trudeau is trending even lower on personal likeability. The difference, however, is that while Trudeau is implementing useful policies, Poilievre is becoming the grating, gas-tax guy. Trudeau is loathed without a doubt. But it’s on style, not substance. Poilievre has both a style and a substance problem. If Trudeau talks down to us, Poilievre whines and complains; and, we have no idea about his policies. His makeover last summer as a multi-cultural family man did soften his snarly demeanor, but he quickly fell back into the typecast of just another angry white dude. Now it’s probably too late for a second makeover. Maybe Poilievre’s petulant personality is a deliberate vote-getting tactic to get us fuming at Trudeau. If that’s the case, Poilievre will have to sustain it throughout this summer and the next. If jobs, interest rates, and other metrics keep improving, the tactic could backfire, reducing him into a caricature of an uncreative, cranky hardliner. The fact is, we may not like Trudeau, but we don’t want him replaced with a permanently disgruntled demagogue. It doesn’t help Poilievre’s case that the United States has also entered its presidential election cycle with Donald Trump running for the Republican Party. Canadians might be unnerved by the nightly news of Trump’s brand of nasty extremism, drawing inevitable comparisons to the official opposition leader. One more endorsement from a Trump-supporting wacko like Alex Jones could be downright disastrous for Poilievre. Interestingly, these dynamics are occurring organically by coincidence, without the Liberal electoral machinery kicking in with its attack ads. This reveals Poilievre’s other big weakness: like other Conservative leaders before him, Poilievre underestimates Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is a seasoned fighter, and a steady hand. He is not bringing the brawl to Poilievre. He is tethering it to policy, meaningful public engagement, and a statesman-like conduct. That is Trudeau’s path to victory: keep doing good policy work, push Poilievre against the right-wing ropes, and after the American elections, unleash the attacks. It could work. It may be working. After nearly two years of becoming his party's leader, Poilievre hasn’t improved his net positive numbers. Poilievre doesn’t have to fall for Trudeau’s rope-a-dope trick. He can change the channel by showing humility and thoughtfulness. He can speak from the heart rather than from pre-scripted slogans. The change that Canadians want is not ideological stringency. We need authenticity and fresh, new ideas that move us forward, incrementally, and with compassion. What we don’t need is a special-interest firebrand ready to demolish the ship of our precious state. The choices for Poilievre are straightforward. He can start acting prime ministerial and appeal to our better national instincts, or, he can keep going down the road which is spinning him into a cantankerous neocon. Veterans of the Liberal election-readiness team are waiting, counting on the latter. Bhagwant Sandhu is a retired director general from the federal public service. He has also held executive positions with the governments of Ontario and British Columbia. The Hill Times

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Disgruntled demagogue or holier-than-thou PM? These are your options, Canada

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre keeps digging himself into an ever-constricting corner as an extremist ideologue, motivated by derision and reactionary dogma.

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