Polls have Singh worried and it shows

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Rosalynn Carter once said, “Don't worry about polls, but if you do, don't admit it.” On the surface, this might sound like good advice, but believe me, no politician in the real world could ever actually follow it. Indeed, all politicians worry about polls, and all politicians will admit it one way or another. For instance, I’d argue that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is worried about his polls, and I’d also argue that he’s admitting it through his rhetoric. Now before I go on, let me say the NDP would never buy into my argument. Heck, if anything, NDP officials have been downright contemptuous when it comes to all those polls which show their party languishing in last place. Anne McGrath, for example, who serves as principal secretary to Singh, was dismissive of the polls and showed The Hill Times' Chelsea Nash a column by Chantal Hébert from 2009 titled, "Layton sliding into irrelevance in Quebec." And U.S. political strategist LaToia Jones had this to say about polls at the Progress Summit on April 11 in Ottawa: “Polls are bullshit. Nobody can say what's going to happen in an election campaign a year away, or even a week away, based on polls.” And, yes, in fairness to McGrath, it’s easy to point out glaring instances of when pollsters have seemingly gotten it all wrong. Consider how in 2016 just about every major pollster was predicting that Hillary Clinton would clobber Donald Trump. Talk about missing the mark. Mind you, we also must keep in mind the difference between public opinion polls—the ones which get splashed about in the media—and private opinion polls which political parties routinely commission. The latter, which can cost a lot of money, tend to be much more accurate than public polls, while also offering political parties key bits of data that can be used to create a communication strategy that will resonate with the public. In other words, unlike public polls which usually only give a superficial snapshot of who’s winning the “horse race,” the more rigorous internal polls, which dig much deeper into public attitudes, provide political parties with research that can be used to create a path to victory. This is why all political parties employ pollsters. Even the NDP has a pollster, which suggests McGrath’s anti-polling comment must be taken with just a pinch of salt. At any rate, I’ve got to believe the NDP’s pollster is crunching out numbers which are making the party’s top brass nervous. More specifically, I believe said pollster is presenting evidence showing how the NDP’s stance supporting the controversial carbon tax is killing the party. He or she is probably saying something like, “according to our data, your base hates the carbon tax and unless you distance yourself from it, you’ll get crushed.” Why do I think that’s happening? Well, just consider how the NDP’s position on the carbon tax has shifted as of late. Not too long ago, remember, the party was all gung-ho on the tax, seeing it as an effective method to combat emissions. But that was then, and this is now, and now Singh is apparently cooling to the idea of carbon taxes, saying he doesn't want the burden of fighting climate change to fall on working people. As he put it in a recent speech, the fight against pollution “can't be done by letting working families bear the cost of climate change while big polluters make bigger and bigger profits. We all lose if we make Canadians choose between an affordable life and fighting the climate crisis." It sure looks like the NDP leader is signaling his willingness to perhaps flip-flop on the carbon tax, sacrificing it on the altar of political expediency. So, yes, Singh’s polls have spooked him, and his change of tone on the carbon tax is how he’s admitting he’s spooked. Editor's note and correction: This column originally reported that Anne McGrath called the polls "bullshit," but it was American political strategist LaToia Jones who said this at the Progress Summit on April 11, as reported by The Hill Times here. This column was corrected and updated on April 30. The Hill Times apologizes for this error. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times