Are Canadians buying what the Liberals are selling in their pre-budget push?

OTTAWA—The prime minister and his team have been on an announcement spree beginning just before the Easter weekend. The approach appears to be a strategy to connect with target groups of Canadians about affordability, and to move away from the public relations pounding they have gotten from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and many of Canada's premiers on carbon pricing. By the time we actually get to the federal budget on April 16, that event may be entirely anti-climatic, though we should see in the guts of the budget how the government plans to pay for the numerous programs it has just announced. It should also give us some sense of whether government cuts or new taxation measures will fuel new programs. Some of the programs announced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are being welcomed by policy experts and service providers in the field. The government’s $6-billion housing program and the $1-billion National School Food Program seem to get the passing grade from experts. Though with the war on "experts" being waged by the Conservative opposition, that might be the kiss of death for the initiatives unless the government can re-establish its lost credibility. There’s no immediate evidence in public polling that this is happening. Perhaps Trudeau is setting the bar lower. Many on his team—including himself, on occasion—have been walking like the dead, with little fight in them. Self-inflicted wounds were common when they ventured out to say something. Chatter had picked up again that Trudeau was not going to serve out his term as his defeat was almost certain. Liberal governments in particular—but not just Liberal governments—have often used the public treasury as a political rehabilitation vehicle. Buying us off with our own money is a time-honoured political practice. It has been a while since saying “no” and doing more with less was a vote winner. That is a shame, really, because our government is still spending way too much money and it legitimately could be impacting inflation, but I digress. Liberal team members are likely to be happier if they feel their leadership team is pushing back against an opponent whose progress they have so far struggled to stall. There is no joy in assuming the turtle position, wishing you weren't the one kissing the pavement. A small win for Trudeau would be to give his caucus and followers a sense of hope, no matter how faint it might be. My colleague and Abacus CEO, David Coletto, noted on X last weekend that Canadians are still more aware of carbon tax arguments than they are something like the school food program. His opinion is that it will take until next week's budget and after it before there is any reasonable evidence to determine if Trudeau's "big buy" has moved any support back into his column. The massive mountain that needs to be overcome for success is what seems to be an already deeply ingrained frustration with the prime minister, his government, and that carbon price that became a tax. In three separate settings in and around Ottawa last weekend, I listened to three different people angrily rant about how the April 1 carbon price was affecting them or someone they knew. How much of their story was actually born out by fact was not clear, but the fact those complaints were a reality is more concerning if you are Liberal politician. No one in that random weekend focus group said a word about any of the policies rolled out in the "big buy." What if the PM's strategy doesn't move the public-opinion needle? What dynamics will begin to play out for the government? It is hard to imagine that either the prime minister or his party will remain of the view that sticking around is the best course of action for all concerned. In 2015, Trudeau had the desire for change on his side, and a country that was prepared to be more hopeful. At this point in 2024, there is indeed a desire for change directed squarely at Trudeau, and—unfortunately for us all—anger is the most potent emotional driver. There is a lot riding on this "big buy.” With no refunds or exchanges on offer, shopping for votes has taken on a new meaning. Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies and managing director of Abacus Data. He is a former adviser to Conservative political leaders. The Hill Times

Are Canadians buying what the Liberals are selling in their pre-budget push?

The massive mountain the feds need to overcome for success is what seems to be an already deeply ingrained frustration with the prime minister, his government, and that carbon price.

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Are Canadians buying what the Liberals are selling in their pre-budget push?

The massive mountain the feds need to overcome for success is what seems to be an already deeply ingrained frustration with the prime minister, his government, and that carbon price.

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