There are signs of resistance to the right-wing juggernaut, if you look hard enough

CHELSEA, QUE.—Lurking somewhere between despair and denial, you can spot tiny glimmers of hope for non-Conservative voters in this country—in what is, admittedly, an otherwise dire and discouraging political landscape. These glimmers may not shine brightly enough yet to stop the righteous armies of vengeance, the daily cavalcade of distortion and insult, the seemingly inevitable decline of a well-meaning—but flawed—prime minister, who has outstayed his welcome. But, if everyone gives up, we may as well hand over the keys to Rideau Cottage immediately—and resign ourselves to accelerating climate chaos and increasing economic inequality. Instead, why not look outside the capital? The election of Wab Kinew, the first modern-day Indigenous premier of Manitoba, signals a welcome departure from the usual fed-prov scenario: premiers fighting Ottawa over every bland federal attempt at helping their citizens. In his first months, the new NDP premier has cheerfully accepted $664-million in federal money for health care, and also welcomed the recent federal mini-pharmacare plan. And, while Kinew has not defended the federal carbon tax—and the controversial three-cent-per-litre hike coming next month—he has not trashed it, or the prime minister, like some of his provincial counterparts have. Instead, he has talked about devising a made-in-Manitoba climate plan, and, in the meantime—in the name of affordability—dropped the 14 cent provincial tax on gasoline and frozen electricity rates. This isn’t the bold climate action that is desperately needed, but Kinew’s previous commitment to developing more clean power, in a province already blessed with abundant hydro-electricity, suggests a different future path from his pro-oil Prairie neighbours. It inspires hope that even if the federal carbon tax dies—the victim of poor salesmanship and a shrill and dishonest propaganda campaign led by Pierre Poilievre—the battle against greenhouse gas emissions will continue in another form. Overall, Kinew has presented a cheerful, pragmatic and magnanimous face to his province and the country. He is also a compelling speaker—especially his funeral tribute to former federal NDP leader Ed Broadbent, which left progressive voters to ponder, wistfully, how different things might be if the Manitoba premier, rather than NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, were leading the federal team. Kinew’s recent passionate defence of trans rights in the provincial legislature was also a stark and heartening contrast to the dark musings of New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe, all of whom have created a non-existent threat to “parental rights” to court their social conservative base. Gesturing to his Conservative opponents, Kinew disputed the contention that “people who use different pronouns are something that our children need to be protected from.” He continued: “In fact, if my boys show some small measure of the courage, integrity and grace I will die a happy man, knowing that my work as a father has been successful.” He concluded, in words that should resonate with progressive voters across the continent, “the real thing the kids of Manitoba need to be protected from is hatred and bigotry.” Meanwhile, he has followed through on some easier campaign promises including an official Orange Shirt Day, and naming Métis leader Louis Riel as the first honorary premier of Manitoba. He has also initiated a bill to ban replacement workers and solidify union rights. Time and events will chip away at his popularity, as always happens, but not yet: in a recent poll, Kinew ranked as the country’s most popular premier, with a 63 per cent approval rating. There are promising rumbles coming from Atlantic Canada, too. New Brunswick Liberals have an energetic, articulate and bilingual new leader in Susan Holt, a mid-40s businesswoman from Fredericton. Since assuming the leadership last year, Holt has been travelling the province, meeting with health-care workers, new candidates and municipal officials—and posting her adventures on X. Her main focus is affordability, protecting the province’s bilingual status, and fixing the lamentably inadequate health care system. Like other provincial leaders, she is calling for a pause on the April 1 carbon tax hike; she also proposes cancelling a clean fuel tax and the provincial tax on electricity bills. While hardly the actions of a climate leader, Holt promises a New Brunswick environmental plan, and, unlike Premier Higgs, to date hasn’t joined Poilievre’s Axe the Tax rallies. (The truth is that most New Brunswick families now receive more than they pay on fuel taxes through the federal carbon tax rebate— a reality that prompted the province to drop its own tax and embrace the federal system last year.) Meanwhile, Higgs, arguably the grumpiest of premiers, kick-started a specious campaign against trans kids last year, under the guise of protecting parental rights. While his position plays well to right-wing sentiment in the province, it provoked an open rebellion in his caucus and reportedly irritated pragmatic New Brunswickers more concerned with the cost of living that esoteric moral crusades. According to one recent poll, Higgs’ Conservatives are now trailing the Liberals 34 to 40 per cent, and Holt is the preferred choice as premier among 31 per cent of those polled, compared to 25 per cent for Higgs. If those soundings hold until the October provincial election, Higgs could be off to involuntary retirement with the electoral map of eastern Canada changed once again. Arguably, more impactful changes are looming in Alberta, with a competitive race to succeed retiring provincial NDP leader Rachel Notley. Along with four certifiably-sane former Notley cabinet ministers (all women), a prominent provincial labour leader and former Calgary mayor, Naheed Nenshi, have entered the race. The fact that Nenshi, an avowed non-partisan as mayor, is joining the NDP makes him either an interloper and opportunist, or—for some progressive voters—evidence of the party’s potential to reach beyond its base and regain power. That said, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has proven to be a wily operator, a skilled communicator and an attentive servant of her right-wing rural base. Despite her widely unpopular campaign to quit the Canada Pension Plan, her push for a provincially-financed police force to replace the RCMP, and her apparent hostility to clean tech investors, her UPC party continues to lead the NDP by around 7 points in most polls. According to early intelligence, Nenshi, more than the other candidates, could challenge that lead. Under his leadership, the NDP would likely become an even more pragmatic, centrist party, that could sever ties with the unpopular federal NDP—or leave it to party members to join one, or both, branches of the party. A Nenshi victory could also open the door to genuine federal-provincial co-operation on climate change, instead of serving—as Smith’s government does—as an unpaid cheerleader for the booming fossil fuel sector. Amid all this churn, there are signs, however belated, that the federal Liberals are finally fighting back—led by their most skilled communicators, including Housing Minister Sean Fraser, and Labour Minister and former broadcaster Seamus O’Reagan. Along with regular, feisty postings on X from cabinet ministers and MPs, the party is finally releasing ads targeting Pierre Poilievre’s constant and repeated lies about government policy and intentions. Instructively, however, it was yet another premier—British Columbia’s David Eby, a New Democrat—who recently matched Poilievre slogan-for-slogan, denouncing the Conservative leader’s “baloney factory” around the carbon tax. The phrase immediately resonated among voters dismayed by Poilievre’s exhausting anger and impulsive nastiness. Surely, no matter what the polls say, a majority of Canadians want political leaders to work together on serious domestic problems like health care and affordability, to fight climate change, and present an intelligent, pragmatic face to the world? Surely there is light at the end of this dark tunnel. Or do we have to wait until political leaders die, then look back, in the gauzy light of nostalgia, at the civility and devotion to public service that, in hindsight at least, once animated public life? Susan Riley is a veteran political columnist who writes regularly for The Hill Times. The Hill Times

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There are signs of resistance to the right-wing juggernaut, if you look hard enough

The election of Wab Kinew, the first modern-day Indigenous premier of Manitoba, signals a welcome departure from the usual fed-prov scenario: premiers fighting Ottawa over every bland federal attempt at helping their citizens.

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