Climate change will affect your grocery prices

Canadians have been finding grocery shopping more painful to their wallets in recent years. The term "foodflation" has entered our lexicon, prompting the search for culprits. Supply chain disruptions as a result of the pandemic and the Ukraine war did contribute, as did perhaps "greedflation"—the perceived greed of leading Canadian grocers. The rising costs of food imports from the United States due to the falling Canadian dollar (relative to the U.S. dollar) may also be at play. The latest culprit under scrutiny is the Canadian carbon tax. However, if you are worried about your grocery prices, there might be something more important to consider than the carbon tax: climate change itself. The idea that the carbon tax (officially the Canada carbon rebate) is affecting our grocery prices makes sense—the tax aims to make technology that emits greenhouse gases expensive, such as fuel use in tractors and other farm machinery, and trucks that deliver groceries to the supermarket. Yet, the Bank of Canada estimated the impact of the tax on inflation at 0.15 per cent each year, while Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economist, estimated its effect on British Columbia food prices in 2023 as 0.33 per cent. These figures are far less than the actual increase in food prices—10.3 per cent in 2022, 5.9 per cent in 2023 and an expected 2.5-4.5 per cent in 2024. Our research shows that over the past 13 years, the prices of fruits and vegetables in Canada have been affected by extreme weather shocks in regions that supply these produce. For example, we found a 30 per cent increase in the price of lettuce and cauliflower during heat waves in California, Arizona, and Quebec (major suppliers), and a 20 per cent price increase for lemons and grapes during droughts in California, British Columbia, Ontario, and Chile. Lettuce was also affected by an approximately 50 per cent increase in price during heavy rains in California and Arizona. In other words, extreme weather in regions that supply fruits and vegetables to Canada have already begun to affect our grocery bills. While these price hikes may be temporary, and while these particular items may not constitute a large portion of our grocery bill, there are numerous studies showing that extreme weather events are already affecting global crop production, highlighting how climate change-related extreme weather may increasingly influence food prices. Our findings also illustrate the challenge in maintaining a healthy diet rich in fruits and vegetables, given that their cost remains a significant obstacle for many Canadians. This growing vulnerability of our food systems to climate-related extreme weather underscores the urgent need for more robust climate action. In fact, the long-term effects of climate change on foodflation are likely to be more severe than the direct effects of the carbon tax. Moreover, research shows that both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are expected to increase over the next century. Thus, it’s imperative not only to retain the carbon tax but also to augment our climate response through measures such as expanding renewable energy, reducing deforestation and increasing reforestation, managing methane leaks, retrofitting buildings, among other actions. The carbon tax in British Columbia, that’s been running since 2008, is shown to have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by five-15 per cent compared to the counterfactual of not having a tax. However, the Canadian carbon tax alone cannot address climate change without similar efforts from other major carbon emitting nations. This is certainly a collective responsibility. But from a moral perspective, Canada—with the first or second highest cumulative greenhouse gas emissions per person and 11th highest per-capita wealth—bears great responsibility to not only reduce its own emissions but also to assist poorer countries in mitigating theirs and enhancing their adaptive capacity. In our interconnected world, where Canada imports about 80 per cent of its fruits and about 60 per cent of its vegetables, investing in climate mitigation and adaptation in other countries will also reduce our own exposure to the effects of climate change. Navin Ramankutty is a professor and Canada Research Chair in the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs and the Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability at the University of British Columbia. He uses data science and modelling to explore effective solutions to improve the sustainability of global food systems. Kushank Bajaj is a PhD candidate in the Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability at the University of British Columbia. He leverages data science to explore pressing questions surrounding sustainable food systems and systemic climate risks. The Hill Times