Obvious loser in ArriveCan scandal is Trudeau government

HALIFAX—Apart from the Canadian public, the obvious loser in the ArriveCan scandal is the Trudeau government. After all, it takes a special kind of incompetence to turn an $80,000 project into a $60-million boondoggle of epic proportions. Thanking the Auditor General for writing what could be your political epitaph isn’t fooling anyone. Neither is the promise to accept her recommendations. Or protestations that you are committed to handling taxpayers’ money responsibly. In the light of the AG’s findings, that is all nonsense. But there is a second victim in this hot mess: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Singh placed a high-stakes bet that his supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals, which would allow the Liberals to remain in place until 2025, would benefit the NDP in the long run. In return for keeping the government in power, the Liberals pledged to give special attention to the NDP's policy priorities. And in the case of a public dental care program—or at least the baby steps towards one—that is what happened. But there is a second victim in this hot mess: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. He placed a high-stakes bet that his supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals, which would allow the Liberals to remain in place until 2025, would benefit the NDP in the long run. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Pharmacare is another matter. The Liberals have already missed one deadline in doing something about this NDP priority. The new deadline is now March. But the government has already made clear that whatever it might come up with, it will be far short of a single payer, universal program. That, government ministers have said, is far too expensive. Parsing that response, the Liberals will try to substitute a “framework” for pharmacare, rather than legislation that would actually create it. And that is the first problem for Singh. Will he see such a half-measure as enough to continue with the supply-and-confidence agreement, or will he terminate the deal on the grounds that the Liberals are trying to wiggle out of their commitment? A half-measure might have been enough to keep the deal alive before the auditor general’s report on ArriveCan. But it will be much harder for Singh to acquiesce now. As the ArriveCan report scorched its way through Parliament like a wildfire, it was Singh who characterized the government as out of touch, as wastrels who squandered public tax dollars while many Canadians struggled to make ends meet. How could enabling such a government be any benefit to the NDP? That is a question that the NDP caucus will be taking up. Knowing that, depending on what happens with other investigations into the ArriveCan scandal—including one by the RCMP—their ongoing affiliation with the Liberals could be disastrous. Singh will inevitably face pressure from his own caucus to walk away from the supply-and-confidence deal at the first plausible opportunity. Some observers have noted that it is unlikely that Singh would trigger an election over pharmacare. That is probably true. But no one should be surprised if he cancels the supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals should they shortchange him on pharmacare. The reason that is likely is simple. As long as the agreement exists—especially against the backdrop of an escalating scandal for the government—the official opposition will include the NDP in its relentless attack on the government’s behaviour. In what could easily be an election year, it will become increasingly important for the NDP to distance itself from the Liberals. If they don’t, expect Pierre Poilievre to continue his assault on the sins and misdemeanours of the NDP/Liberal coalition. In other words, the Conservative Party of Canada is the only viable alternative. It is worth noting that Singh doesn’t have to trigger an election to create distance between himself and the Trudeau government. He can do it by ending the supply-and-confidence agreement, and then taking each confidence vote that might arise on its own merits. Singh has already signalled that such an approach is on him mind. And in so doing, he carefully noted that unlike the Conservatives, the NDP would not oppose the government on every initiative. In other words, the NDP's first task is to reclaim its own political identity, not bring the government down. In politics, timing is everything. At this moment, momentum is building for the CPC and dwindling for both the Liberals and the NDP. It is in Poilievre’s interests to force an election as soon as possible, and in the interests of the Trudeau government, to delay it for as long as possible. Until inflation goes down, until the Bank of Canada lowers interest rates, until the party itself decides whether or not it is time to choose a new leader. With the Conservatives enjoying a high double-digit lead in the polls, that time may be at hand. And that makes Singh the man of the hour. The one thing Poilievre can’t do on his own is force an election. And that’s why he will continue to lump the Liberals and the NDP together as partners in political incompetence. The only real question is what will the NDP leader do? The reality at one level is that the NDP is probably not ready for an election. But it is also true that Singh can’t continue to be seen as Justin Trudeau’s policy buddy. In the past, the Liberals have blunted any momentum for the NDP by saying that a vote for them is a vote for the Conservatives. And you can bet the farm that if the NDP abandons the supply-and-confidence agreement, that is what they will say again. So Singh is on the spot. The calculus is pretty clear. Sticking with the deal with the Liberals is an arrangement of diminishing returns for the NDP. As long as they partner with Trudeau, any criticism of the government will also apply to the NDP. From the day Singh entered into the deal, it was inevitable that he would one day have to abandon it. With the fallout from the debacle of ArriveCan, that day is much closer. Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist. The Hill Times

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Obvious loser in ArriveCan scandal is Trudeau government

It takes a special kind of incompetence to turn an $80,000 project into a $60-million boondoggle of epic proportions.

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