What a Poilievre government might look like

OTTAWA—Pierre Poilievre is not prone to discussing policy details, instead preferring to complain and blame. Luckily, there are early signposts available to help us extrapolate how a Conservative government under Poilievre might act. To start, one can assume that like all right-wing populists, Poilievre would keep leaning on libertarian orthodoxy as far as his image and public persona can go. It won him the Conservative Party’s leadership, and is now helping him hold his political coalition together. However, with its emphasis on individualism, the libertarian canon is inadequate to formulate collectivist, national policy. For that, Poilievre will have to rely on the doctrine of neoconservatism. As a political ideology, neoconservatism was erected by the American media personality Irving Kristol. It stands on three pillars: patriotism in the public and private domains, a deep suspicion of international institutions as agents of world government, and a separation of the world into friends and enemies. Kristol also has a fourth pillar which he reserved for use only by the United States: national interest must drive all geopolitical activity. The ontology of neoconservatism is anchored squarely on a medieval form of tribalism. From this perspective, the nation state is a transactional entity, maneuvering through minefields of enemies with ever-evolving conspiracies out to get it. Psychologically, the neoconservative vision fosters a sense of fear, doubt, and distrust. Solace is found only in the company of like-minded friends and in tribal unity. Poilievre is already operating within this framework. Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis typifies it. According to her, a Poilievre government would govern on the principles of faith-based policy. It is a mindset that seeks to promote so-called Judeo-Christian values, white ethnonationalism, and to extricate Canada from multilateral institutions like the United Nations, World Health Organization, and the International Planned Parenthood Foundation. The former two she recons represent global government, while the latter supports abortion. The problem for Poilievre is that the political space of libertarian talking points and neoconservative policy presentations actually belongs to Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party of Canada. Unlike Poilievre, who often refuses to delve into specifics, Bernier has unapologetically put his stake in the grounds of real-deal neoconservatism. Bernier’s policy ideas are on full public display, from immigration to Indigenous issues, and internal trade. That chasm offers another point of entry into how a Poilievre government might operate. At present, Bernier trails in the polls at one to two per cent, down from his usual five to seven per cent. Clearly, Poilievre has siphoned off Bernier’s support. But that can easily be reversed. In the past, Bernier has shot up to the 10-15 per cent range. If that were to happen again, Poilievre’s lead in the polls could evaporate in a fingers' snap. To protect himself against such an outcome, he will have little choice but to pursue Bernier’s version of neoconservatism. As prime minister, then, Poilievre may be pressed to enact a hardline scheme of items like: sweeping austerity measures, tax cuts, privatization of public assets, denial of climate change, changes to the criminal code, relaxed firearms legislation, increased expenditures on the military and veterans, deep dives into gender rights, and stirring up issues of Canadian identity. It is all neatly outlined on the PPC's website. Poilievre has alluded to such plans already. Speeches and slogans about “axe the tax,” “jail not bail,” “build homes not bureaucracy,” photo-ops with anti-transgender militants, and outbursts against the World Economic Forum could arguably be interpreted not as political theatre, but rather as hints to a potential program being envisioned for a future Conservative government. This ought not alarm Canadians. There is a very strong counterbalance to the bleakness of neoconservatism that both Poilievre and Bernier are touting. It is the political legacy of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who—if the election eventually takes place in the fall of 2025—would have presided over Canada for roughly 10 years. It is long enough for us to become accustomed to a progressive agenda of domestic policies from our federal government. Trudeau has significantly moved the yardsticks on issues like national unity and social coherence, Indigenous reconciliation, environmental policy, childcare, dentalcare, and LGBTQ+ rights, while overseeing a triple AAA-rated economy. Canadians are peeved at Trudeau, but that does not mean they are ready to fall in line with the neuroticism of neoconservative tribalism. Poilievre has his work cut out. As the federal election approaches, he will have to decide where to put his political marbles: with the neoconservative grievances of Bernier’s playbook, or with the policies of pragmatism preferred by the rest of us. It’s a tough call if you are Poilievre. Bhagwant Sandhu is a retired director general from the federal public service. He also held executive positions with the governments of Ontario and British Columbia. The Hill Times

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What a Poilievre government might look like

Hint: it's remarkably similar to what a Maxime Bernier government might look like.

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