What do pandemics and climate change have in common? They disrupt supply chains

It is not just global pandemics that have a major effect on supply chains; increasingly, climate change is wreaking havoc on the global distribution of goods. We are no longer in the business of predicting future climate-change risks; those impacts are already upon us. Just a few weeks ago, we momentarily surpassed the 2 C warming threshold that, as a global society, we have identified as a major tipping point, and one that we should not permanently cross. We are experiencing extreme events, such as wildfires, hurricanes and tropical storms, tornadoes, floods, and droughts. These events are occurring at accelerated rates, and are expected to cost us trillions of dollars in infrastructure damages. The fires that occurred in the Northwest Territories last summer caused mass evacuation down a single highway due to the remoteness of the Arctic region and the limited transportation infrastructure there. The rapid mobilization of significant resources to deal with the extreme fire this past summer is just one example of what is to come in Canada. As the Arctic warms at four times the rate of the global average, the region as a whole is expected to both attract billions of dollars in infrastructure investments related to natural resource extraction, tourism, and fisheries, and to simultaneously create billions of dollars in infrastructure damage as a direct impact of climate change. Jackie Dawson is the Canada Research Chair in the Human and Policy Dimensions of Climate Change at University of Ottawa. Photograph courtesy of Jackie Dawson Permafrost thaw will present major challenges for rail and road-based transportation infrastructure, and sea ice reductions will increase maritime shipping accessibility. Indeed, climate change may finally make British explorer John Franklin’s dream of accessible global trade through the Northwest Passage in Canada’s Arctic a reality. Any delay in the full accessibility of the Northwest Passage for global trade is mainly related to the dynamic import of thick multi-year ice that is breaking up in the Central Arctic Ocean—due to climate change—and is flowing into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. This makes major infrastructure development in the region risky. However, external factors—such as global economic trends, geopolitical tensions, innovations in ship design for ice breaking and propulsion, political will, and major droughts in the Panama Canal that have reduced canal transits there by 33 per cent—are likely to heighten the need to invest in Arctic transportation infrastructure sooner rather than later. To prepare for climate change and extreme climate events, we absolutely need climate-resilient infrastructure and climate-resilient supply chains. These two things are reliant upon each other. You cannot have one without the other. Our typical per-capita model for funding infrastructure will not work in Arctic Canada where the population base is incredibly low, but where the potential for geopolitical tensions and economic opportunity is so incredibly high. We need to be innovative in this regard. Many view the Canadian Arctic as relatively undeveloped compared to other global Arctic regions. It is also, from a governance perspective, a region that is arguably the most advanced in terms of devolution and legislated rights for First Peoples—mainly Inuit—through several settled land claim agreements. This combination of factors puts us in an admirable position for the future—meaning we have an opportunity, and the right structures in place, to develop resilient infrastructure and resilient supply chains in the region in innovative, equitable, self-determined, and sustainable ways that place “climate resilience” at the forefront. We must base our planning and investments in a climate resilient Arctic on sound science and world class “loss-and-damage” estimates to ensure the investments we do make, do not soon after get destroyed by climate-related hazards. What we lack currently though are enough relevant studies focused on climate change risk and residual risk, for supply-chain resilience. A quick search of the word “infrastructure” in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II report reveals that the word appears a little more than 2,000 times in a document that is more than 750,000 words in length. The phrase “supply chain” occurs just 170 times. When reviewing the chapter on Polar Regions, “infrastructure” appears just 68 times, and “supply chain” occurs just once out of a total 12,500 words. As a scientific community, we must absolutely and urgently adapt our research agendas to ensure real-world relevance of our assessments for key economic sectors. This will enable our world leaders to make more effective investment decisions that support climate-resilient infrastructure and climate-resilient supply chains, so that what is built today isn’t destroyed tomorrow by the next extreme fire, flood, or hurricane. As the world gathers in Dubai for COP28 to discuss how our global community can keep warming levels below 2 C through mitigation efforts, we must also press on with appropriate adaptation measures that support economic resilience. After all, a resilient supply chain is good in the face of rapid climate change, and is also good in the face of a global pandemic. Jackie Dawson is a full professor and Canada Research Chair in the Human and Policy Dimensions of Climate Change at University of Ottawa, and scientific director of ArcticNet. The Hill Times

What do pandemics and climate change have in common? They disrupt supply chains

We absolutely need climate-resilient infrastructure and climate-resilient supply chains to prepare for climate change and extreme climate events.

I live with Parkinson’s. I’m telling Ottawa: we need funding now

Feds must reject advance requests for MAID

Investing in innovation: the future of animal-free toxicity testing in Canada

Peru and Canada: a strong and expanding bilateral relationship

Misinformation: the other epidemic

Rallying against the blaze: uniting Canadians to fight climate change

Nurturing Canada’s agricultural future: a call for a long-term vision

The Davos crystal ball: global risks in 2024 and beyond

Tackling the health system’s carbon footprint: when part of the problem becomes part of the solution

Address the climate crisis through sustainable infrastructure and mitigation, adaptation finance

News

Get free news updates

Opinion

Submit a guest opinion article

resources

Advertise

subscribe

get help

Get free news updates

Submit a guest opinion article

What do pandemics and climate change have in common? They disrupt supply chains

We absolutely need climate-resilient infrastructure and climate-resilient supply chains to prepare for climate change and extreme climate events.

Get The Policy Briefings Newsletter