Is this the beginning of the end for François Legault?

KAMOURASKA, QUE.—These are not easy times for Quebec Premier François Legault and his Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government. While the premier managed to be seen as everyone's favourite uncle during the COVID-19 pandemic, his avuncular ways have begun to wear a bit thin. A Dec. 4 Angus Reid poll showed Legault as the least popular premier in Canada, with 31 per cent support. The decline was substantial: Legault was at 47 per cent in September. There is a long (dirty) laundry list of reasons for this quick decline: the disingenuous promise of a “third link” bridge or tunnel for Quebec City, which was never intended; Bill 15, the new legislation to centralize health care, opposed publicly by the last six Quebec premiers. But the really devastating self-inflicted wounds were the decision to increase salaries of members of the national assembly by 30 per cent, and the offer of $7-million to the Los Angeles Kings to come to Quebec City to play a couple of meaningless pre-season hockey games next fall. All this in the midst of ongoing labour negotiations with a union common front. The non-francophone community—especially those living on the island of Montreal—soured on Legault’s brand of nationalism long ago, which is reflected in his support: the CAQ holds a handful of seats in the Montreal area, but dominates the mostly rural regions, like Kamouraska. Legault’s decline began after an October byelection in Quebec City. Suffering a devastating loss to the Parti Québécois, Legault doubled down on nationalism, calling for increased tuition fees for out-of-province students at English universities. That only drew criticism, and PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has now taken the lead in popularity. Legault began to lose his swagger, saying he was “aware Quebecers are angry with me.” Then he made a plea for teachers to return to the bargaining table. “We can’t hurt our children, they’re the most precious thing we have,” he declared. The teachers accused him of “emotional blackmail.” Legault was first elected in 2018 on promises of political stability and better economic management. Here was the founder of Air Transat and a former Parti Québécois cabinet minister promising good government, and no referendum for a decade. The CAQ was, therefore, a party built on opportunism. The canny Legault saw people were tired of the Liberal-PQ wars of the past. So, without denying his own separatist beliefs, he put them aside to get elected. But Legault was never a skilled politician. As a PQ hardliner, he had few subtleties to his game. An acquaintance was surprised Legault went into politics as he was the “good time Charlie” who would dance on tables at parties. As for his business acumen, he is worth less than $10-million and is not on speaking terms with his former partners. When he invented the CAQ, Legault centralized the party’s operations. Candidates were recruited from the party office because there were no riding associations. All financing and organization came from the centre, which allowed election spending and communications to be run without ridings making demands. This desire to centralize has been a hallmark of Legault’s government. Bill 15 is the latest of a series of laws designed to put power in the hands of Quebec City bureaucrats. There has been Bill 40, which sought to eliminate school boards; Bill 23 to control school administrators; Bill 96 took away the rights of English speakers; and Bill 21 removed the right of people who wear religious apparel to work in the public service. In the early days of his government, when Bill 21 was passed, Legault taped a speech to “the Quebec nation,” explaining why the law’s blatant discrimination was a good thing. He finished with a dismissive and very colloquial comment that reeked of his arrogance: “Because that is the way we live in Quebec.” While most leaders would look at the track record and fix what is broken, I don’t think Legault has that kind of objectivity. He now has three years before the next election to figure that out. If he loses, it will more than likely be to the resurgent Parti Québécois. Which would mean another national unity angst fest. Because that is the way we live in Quebec. Andrew Caddell is retired from Global Affairs Canada, where he was a senior policy adviser. He previously worked as an adviser to Liberal governments. He is a town councillor in Kamouraska, Que. He can be reached at pipson52@hotmail.com. The Hill Times

Is this the beginning of the end for François Legault?

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Is this the beginning of the end for François Legault?

The Quebec premier was first elected in 2018 on promises of political stability and better economic management, but has since suffered a series of devastating self-inflicted wounds.

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