Don’t ignore Russian threat amid Israel-Hamas war, urges visiting Finnish MP

As the eyes of Canada and the globe centre on the Middle East, the former commander of the Finnish armed forces is calling for Ukraine’s defence not to be neglected as it continues its war effort. Since Hamas’ Oct. 7 slaughter of hundreds of Israelis, and Israel’s subsequent large-scale bombing of Gaza, Canada’s foreign policy focus—previously absorbed with backing Ukraine's defence since Russia's invasion of Feb. 24, 2022—has shifted to the Middle East. During a recent visit to Ottawa, Finnish MP Jarmo Lindberg, who led his country’s armed forces from 2014 to 2019, cautioned against allowing the West’s support for Ukraine to slip. “The long-term support for Ukraine needs to go on,” he told The Hill Times in a Nov. 10 interview at Finnish Ambassador-designate to Canada Jari Vilén’s Rockcliffe Park residence. Lindberg said weapons need to continue to be sent to Ukraine, and production capabilities need to ramp up in Europe and in North America to aid the war effort. “Russia has sufficient resources, they have manpower, they have turned their production into war mode. They are still capable of producing artillery shells, missiles—even advanced cruise missiles—so Ukraine definitely needs the support,” he added. “It’s obvious the focus has shifted there , and part of the resources are being now diverted to Israel and that area,” said Lindberg, referencing the decision by the United States to deploy battleships in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. “But you really need to keep the focus the war in Ukraine because of the sheer size of the war—it’s bigger than anything after the Second World War.” During his visit to Ottawa last week, Lindberg held meetings with officials from the Department of National Defence (DND) and Global Affairs Canada (GAC), as well as think tanks. The visit was a part of a trip of the Parliament of Finland’s Foreign Affairs Committee. Following his visit to Ottawa, Lindberg travelled to the United States to visit New York City and Washington, D.C., for meetings at the United Nations and the U.S. Congress. The former commander of the Finnish defence forces said it still remains to be seen how long the Israel-Hamas war will last, but remarked that it will divert attention and some capabilities away from aiding Ukraine. He said that, increasingly, there needs to be planning for the long term as the conflict in Eastern Europe will continue. “We are in a war of attrition,” Lindberg said. “Every day and every week, the war of attrition goes on. It’s not enough that we look the next week or the next month, we have to prepare for the next year. Who knows if it goes even further.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said Canada will support Ukraine until the war is over. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade The fervent support the West has shown for the Ukrainian cause has seen its first cracks in recent months as Poland and Hungary banned grain imports from Ukraine, new Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico campaigned on ending military assistance for Kyiv, and U.S. Congressional Republicans are split over the prospect of sending more help. While signs of fracturing appear in central and eastern Europe and south of the 49th parallel, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) reinforced Canada’s commitment to supporting Ukraine last month, remarking that Canada will be “there with whatever it takes, as long as it takes, until Ukraine wins.” In recent weeks, Canadian Parliamentarians have raised the question of the West’s weakening enthusiasm for Ukraine’s war effort during meetings of the House and Senate foreign affairs committees. “For many of us, we are committed, as we all know the prime minister said, ‘For as long as it takes, whatever it takes.’ However, Canada is not the most armed nation in the world. We don’t have the largest army. We don’t have a lot of capacity to send as many arms as, say, the U.S. does have,” Liberal MP Hedy Fry (Vancouver Centre, B.C.) said during a Nov. 6 House Foreign Affairs Committee meeting. “It would seem to people like me who have lived through it that there’s a fear for many of us that Ukraine—because of what’s happening in Gaza right now, and other areas of conflict around the world—may eventually end up to be another Vietnam, which would be an absolutely horrifying thought,” she added. Speaking to the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee last month, Alexandre Lévêque, GAC’s assistant deputy minister for Europe, Arctic, the Middle East, and Maghreb, said maintaining support for Ukraine is “critical at this time.” “Russia continues to bank on Ukraine’s allies and partners growing tired. It thinks that sustained military, financial, and political support for Ukraine will weaken, which is why Canada is focusing not only on immediate needs but also on multi-year support,” he said on Oct. 4. Independent Senator Mohamed-Iqbal Ravalia (Newfoundland and Labrador) spotlighted the “sense of growing skepticism” among Canada’s allies in supporting Ukraine when asking Lévêque what Canada is doing to ensure support “continues to be unwavering,” citing the grain dispute, the elections in Slovakia, and a “swing to the right” in Sweden and Italy, as well as the ongoing debates in the U.S. House of Representatives. “You’re quite right to identify these as signs that we, too, are watching and are concerned about,” Lévêque said, but remarked “actions speak louder than words.” He downplayed any division among European and American lawmakers, noting that Canada has received “numerous calls from U.S. partners saying, ‘Don’t worry, the U.S. is it in for the long term.’” Canadian Global Affairs Institute fellow Andrew Rasiulis, an expert on central and eastern Europe, said the Israel-Hamas war opens just another door that diverts attention away from Ukraine. He said the events in Poland, Slovakia, and the U.S. have led a trend developing since the summer of the West’s weakening consensus for backing Ukraine, which has been “exasperated significantly” following the onset of the conflict in the Middle East. “The priority in the United States—particularly the United States—is overwhelmingly for Israel, to the degree that Ukraine can’t compare,” said Rasiulis, a former DND policy section head for central and eastern Europe. “It further exacerbates and makes the Ukrainian situation more and more fragile,” he said, remarking that Ukrainian supply lines are getting “thinner.” Rasiulis said that if foreign assistance to Ukraine slows or halts, it plays to Russia’s advantage on the battlefield, as Moscow's military efforts are far more self-sufficient than those of Ukraine. Given the domestic political effect of the war, he said there is a far less chance of Canada’s support splintering, but what Ottawa can offer to Ukraine is limited. “I’m not sure there’s much more in the pipeline,” said Rasiulis, adding, though, that more assistance could be given in the form of symbolic measures. “We’re not spinning out that much more money because the government also has to be mindful of the budget,” he said. “We say all the right things, but if you notice, Trudeau and the Canadian government has been more muted on this point.” Macdonald-Laurier Institute senior fellow Marcus Kolga said he didn’t think the emergence of other pressing geopolitical situations are pulling support away from Ukraine, remarking that it is “only natural” for Western leaders to pay attention to the conflict in Israel and Gaza. “But the situation in Ukraine is not lost on anyone’s radar,” he said, noting that while some American lawmakers are trying to turn aid for Ukraine into a wedge issue, he doesn’t foresee it derailing the Biden’s administration's support for Kyiv. Finland’s historic shift As Russia's invasion of Ukraine set off geopolitical tectonic shifts, Finland (as well as Sweden) broke its long-standing position and joined NATO. Helsinki officially became a member of the military alliance this past April. “When Russia brutally attacked Ukraine, within half a week, the mentality and the minds of the Finnish people changed,” Lindberg said. “Suddenly, the numbers turned around .” Sharing a more than 1,300-kilometre-long border with Russia, Finland felt its historic approach of self-defence could no longer be sustained due to the actions of Moscow. “We would not have applied to NATO if we thought the old way of doing things alone would be sufficient,” said Lindberg. Finnish MP Jarmo Lindberg says Finland wouldn't have joined NATO if it felt it could be self-sufficient in its defence. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “Everyone saw with the Russian aggression what they are willing to do, and what they are capable of doing,” he said. “That was a clear indication that all the nations bordering Russia have to be better prepared for that kind of large aggression.” “We saw what Russia still is. Finland has fought several wars against Russia throughout our history, and once again we realized that Russia in the modern times is capable of doing something like that,” Lindberg said. “They are willing to take on a nation with their full force to attack civilian towns, civilian targets. They have no problem with that, and we realized that it’s not enough to be alone anymore.” When joining NATO, Finland thought it was “very important” to show it was carrying its own weight, Lindberg said. Over the summer, Finland announced it would spend 2.3 per cent of its GDP on defence to surpass the NATO commitment of two per cent. Canada has been under fire at home and abroad due to consistently missing that target, even after signing on to a NATO communiqué at the recent summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in June, stating that all member nations will make an “enduring commitment” to reach the spending target. Canada currently spends 1.29 per cent of its GDP on defence. “It’s up the Canadian government perspective, based on your strategic position and assessment, to make the decisions, but we Finns, in the current situation, are going to keep it above two per cent,” Lindberg said. nmoss@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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Don’t ignore Russian threat amid Israel-Hamas war, urges visiting Finnish MP

The West's support for Ukraine has shown some signs of fracture as Canada says support for Kyiv is at a 'critical' point.

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