On Trudeau’s future, Conservatives should be careful what they wish for

HALIFAX—No matter what nonsense goes in Question Period—that orgy of bragging, slagging, and attempted sand-bagging that tries to pass for reasoned debate and accountability—Canadians are getting the picture: none of the major leaders can be taken at their word. Canadians know that things are not as rosy as the Liberal government claims, not as bad as the Conservative Party complains, and not as easily solved as the NDP naively declares. So we have the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7? Groceries and gasoline are still way too expensive. Increasing competitiveness in the grocery business won’t change that in a hurry. Message to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: free heat pumps are not the answer to the anger in the land. So the carbon levy is too onerous and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre wants to “axe the tax?" Poorly timed sloganeering after a summer of massive wild fires and floods across the country. Making polluting free again doesn’t deal with climate change. Message to Poilievre: time to get a coherent policy on this existential file, and put aside the “apple a day” politics. So NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh wants to drop the GST for all home heating, not just oil? Here’s the rub. That would seriously reduce federal revenues at exactly the time the NDP is pushing for more social spending. Fighting climate change aside—and that is a huge aside—how is reducing government revenues while shelling out major money on a national pharmacare program fiscally responsible? It is unlikely that any of these matters of policy will soon get a proper airing in the House of Commons, where the main item of business is turning the quip into the clip of the day. That’s because the Conservatives' politics of aggrievement and personal attacks have been so successful. When something works, you keep doing it. Poilievre has skillfully focused the general grumpiness in the country on a single person: Trudeau. Everything is broken, and it is all Trudeau’s fault. At least that is the mantra. It has been an undeniable hit at the political box office. The polls not only have the Liberals looking at the Conservative vapour trail as it zooms ahead of the government in public popularity. Not only do Canadians apparently dislike their former prince of politics, a majority of them would like Trudeau to resign before they get a chance to give him the boot. Poilievre has been so successful in scapegoating Trudeau for all that is wrong in the Canadian universe that even Liberals are getting nervous that the current leader may be about to lead them over a cliff. Senator Percy Downe has publicly mused that Trudeau will determine his political future as leader by this February. Downe doesn’t speak for the party, but if the Liberals become any more unpopular, others may find their voices on the issue of Trudeau’s future. Leader to liability is a well-worn path in public life, especially when the personal attacks just keep coming. It was the Conservatives' relentless personal assaults that drove David Johnston to resign as special rapporteur on foreign interference in Canadian elections. If Trudeau were to decide to make a career change and resign as leader of the Liberal Party, that would be seen in some quarters as another victory for Poilievre’s attack-dog politics. This much is certain. At this moment in time, the Conservatives hold the whip-hand. The government is looking tired, defensive, and vulnerable. If an election were held today, and the polls have it right, the Conservatives would not only triumph, but win a significant majority government. But all of that is premised on the Liberals going into the next election with Trudeau as leader. The official opposition has scored most of its political points by vilifying the current prime minister as privileged, inept, and out of touch with the realities most Canadians face. And then there is the prime minister's judgment issue: blackface decades ago, the lingering odour of the SNC-Lavalin affair that unjustly cost Jody Wilson-Raybould her cabinet post, and the infamous trip to a billionaire’s island when Canadians are having trouble paying the rent and putting food on the table. But if Trudeau were to resign, the clear advantage the Conservative Party now enjoys in the polls would be at risk. Their strategy suffers from the defect of its best point: if Trudeau is to blame for everything—as Poilievre has so adroitly and persuasively argued—what happens if he is no longer there? What would happen, for example, if someone like Sean Fraser became Liberal leader before the next election? Fraser is articulate in both English and French, impressive on his feet, and without the peronsal baggage that is dragging down Trudeau. He has also performed credibly in one of the toughest portfolios a minister can draw: housing. It is also worth remembering that Fraser pulled off the monumental feat of ending the MacKay family dynasty’s Conservative hold on the Nova Scotia riding of Central Nova. And what would happen if the Liberals chose an estimable new leader from outside caucus, someone like Mark Carney? Unlike Fraser, or anyone else drawn from caucus, Carney could not be criticized as a Trudeau cabinet minister who propped up all the dubious policies and would serve up more of the same. Carney would start with a clean political slate. Carney would also be uniquely qualified to deal with what the Conservatives themselves insist is a pressing priority: Canada’s burgeoning national debt. Who would Canadians want in charge of that process: Kid Bitcoin, or the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England? As long as Trudeau is around, and barring a miraculous political resurrection, it looks like the Conservative Party is on the cusp of returning to power. Should that change, should Trudeau exit, it could be a whole new ball game for Poilievre and his party. Which is only to say that in politics as in life: be careful what you wish for. Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist. The Hill Times

On Trudeau’s future, Conservatives should be careful what they wish for

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On Trudeau’s future, Conservatives should be careful what they wish for

As long as Justin Trudeau's around, the Conservatives are on the cusp of returning to power. But should the prime minister exit, it could be a whole new ball game for Pierre Poilievre's party.

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