Poilievre’s possible predicament

OAKVILLE, ONT.—With some opinion polls showing Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party heading into majority territory, his supporters are totally happy and united. Ha, ha! I’m just kidding. The fact is, no matter what the polls might say, Conservatives are never happy and they’re never truly united. How could they be? Keep in mind, the Conservative Party is basically a hodgepodge of right-wing tribes and clans each with their own concerns and values, a list which includes social conservatives who like to focus on issues of morality and virtue, libertarians who like to stress individual freedom, and populists who want to wrest control away from the “elites.” What’s more, conservatives, by nature, gloomily believe the modern world is rapidly heading to hell in a handbasket, but they can’t agree amongst themselves on how to fix things. Their only shared goal is to check the advance of what might be broadly defined as left-wing progressivism. So, in the words of American right-wing intellectual William F. Buckley, conservatives “stand athwart history yelling stop.” But unfortunately for conservative politicians this isn’t much of a blueprint for how to win an election; just yelling stop at history usually won’t cut it. You also need to have a platform with a plethora of detailed policy proposals covering a whole range of social and economic issues. And this can sometimes put Conservative parties in a dilemma. Simply put, whenever they come up with a messaging strategy, one which goes beyond simply saying, “left-wingers are bad," they run the risk of angering certain elements within their own base. And, yes, despite their lead in the polls, it’s possible Poilievre's Conservatives could face just such a predicament. In fact, I recently saw a news story headlined, “Pierre Poilievre's inner circle divided over how to tackle gender issues.” According to this report, Poilievre's advisers and strategists are allegedly arguing over whether the hot-button issue of “gender identity” politics is something the party should aggressively exploit. One unnamed source is quoted as saying, “there are those who think they can use this issue to make gains with the base, and those who think the bet is too dangerous because it could lose moderate voters." Not noted in this article, however, is that if the Conservatives lean too heavily into this issue, in addition to possibly losing “moderate voters," they also run the risk of alienating some conservatives. Yes, gender politics issues also split those on the right. The people in the social-conservative camp, for instance, tend to believe society needs to protect “Christian-Judeo” ideals; thus, they often see gender identity activism as an attack on our traditional moral values. Meanwhile, more libertarian-leaning conservatives believe questions surrounding gender are a matter of individual choice, meaning the government shouldn’t get involved. So, no matter where he stands on the gender debate, it could be a “lose, lose” scenario for Poilievre. The same sort of dispute, by the way, occurs amongst conservatives over another hot-button issue: abortion. At any rate, my point is, even though these are heady times for Conservatives, there are still potential schisms within their ranks. The question of gender identity is only one of them. Conservative factions can also be divided over issues related to cultural policies, gun rights, and immigration. So, this is the ever-present challenge Poilievre (and all Conservative leaders) must face. He’ll never make all conservatives happy, nor will he ever unite them all. But what Poilievre can do is keep the conservative base focused on defeating the Liberals. He does that by crafting a nuanced messaging strategy that respects the views of all conservative tribes. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times