The Rock’s crumbling support for the Liberals should be a wake-up call

OTTAWA—Something fascinating is happening with the federal political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador. Anecdotally, for months, many have been suggesting that seas are changing—long a deep red sea plentiful with Liberal good fortune, it was felt the ocean’s colour was shading back to blue. A rare occurrence, if true. Well, the speculation is now borne out in some fresh data from our polling company, Abacus. We polled 500 people in Newfoundland and Labrador from Sept. 19-25, and found a new current. Based on our representative online survey, the federal Conservatives had a nine-point lead over the Liberals. Specifically, the horse-race standings were Conservatives at 42 per cent, Liberals at 33 per cent, and the NDP at 23 per cent. As our analysis piece accompanying the poll pointed out, compared to the 2021 elections results, this represents a 15-point drop for the Liberals, a nine-point gain for the Conservatives, and a six-point gain for the NDP. To put this into historical context, the last time a federal conservative party won the popular vote in Newfoundland and Labrador was in 1984 during Brian Mulroney’s historic victory. Now, before the Conservatives get too ahead of themselves and plan a Toronto Maple Leafs-like victory parade, there is still a long time between now and the next federal election. People from my province have been known to switch preferences later in the game, too. Nonetheless, if you are a Liberal MP, staffer, supporter, or inclined voter, your concern should not be diminished because voting day is not close, or because you passionately believe the Canadian electorate will see Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as you do come election day. Living on a wing and a prayer is false hope, not a recovery plan. Why are the Liberal numbers so bleak in this long-held stronghold? Well, not unlike the other parts of the country where dissatisfaction exists for the Liberals, they are recipients of mass public anger around the cost-of-living and affordability issues. When asked which factor is most to blame for the rising cost of living, 36 per cent blamed companies charging more than they profit, 31 per cent blamed decisions by the federal government and Justin Trudeau, 16 per cent blamed the COVID-19 pandemic, while only three per cent blamed decisions by the federal government. At the national level, the Trudeau government has tried to present the CEOs of grocery companies as evil villains, in the eyes of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians—at least in this survey—they are fellow tyranny travellers. The cost of living is such an acute political problem in Newfoundland and Labrador for the Liberals because so many residents in our research indicated they are either living paycheque to paycheque, or falling behind. Astoundingly, 77 per cent of respondents identified as being in either of those categories. Only 23 per cent felt they were getting ahead and were able to save money month to month. Climate rebate cheques, grocery rebate cheques, rent subsidies, and lots of feel-your-pain language are doing—as we say out east—shag all to move the political dial for Team Trudeau. To use another local reference, the arse is not entirely out of her for the Liberals back home. In our sampling, both Liberal ministers from the province—Labour and Seniors Minister Seamus O’Regan and Rural Economic Development Minister Gudie Hutchings—were more popular that their boss. And, in O’Regan’s case, he still had a positive rating. Hutchings had a low negative. In this climate, if you are a Liberal elected official, you might take that as a win. If this poll were to become a trend in the region—and that is a big if—massive change could be afoot in the province at the time of the next federal election. And that change would not be confined to Newfoundland and Labrador. If you are the Liberals, it is hard to imagine that staying the course is your best game plan. Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies and managing director of Abacus Data. He is a former adviser to Conservative political leaders. The Hill Times

The Rock’s crumbling support for the Liberals should be a wake-up call

A recent Abacus Data survey found the federal Conservatives had a nine-point lead over the Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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The Rock’s crumbling support for the Liberals should be a wake-up call

A recent Abacus Data survey found the federal Conservatives had a nine-point lead over the Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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