Justin Trudeau can’t be taken for granted

KAMOURASKA, QUE.—Anyone writing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political obituary might want to pause and reassess. While the Liberals continue their dive to seeming oblivion, I think pundits predicting Pierre Poilievre will be the next prime minister should reconsider. Yes, 2023 has been the annus horribilis for Trudeau and the Liberal government, with inflation, rising interest rates, increased deficits, difficult relations with India and China, a purported Nazi in the House, and skepticism among our NATO allies and Five Eyes partners as to our commitments. And leading the way has been a prime minister seemingly unsure of his every move. But domestic politics is rarely affected by such things as international intrigue or financial missteps. And while I have been very critical of the prime minister in the past, I think he should never be underestimated. As someone who first met him when he was three years old, and many times in later years, I think he is a decent person, with a greater sense of himself than many give him credit. For example, I took my 16-year-old daughter to meet the Liberal caucus at their annual Christmas party after the election in 2008. She had expressed great cynicism about politics. As I knew some of the new MPs, I introduced her to them. Most said, “Oh, spend a day with me and I will show you politics is about helping people.” When we bumped into Trudeau, he said, “So you are skeptical about politics, Emily?” When she replied “Yes, I am,” he said, “Well come and spend a day with me in my constituency, and … you will be more skeptical!” We all laughed, and it was obvious he was capable of self-deprecation to appeal to a young person. As a politician, this ability to relate to people is the sign of an effective campaigner. He also benefits from instant recognition as a world celebrity. In monetary terms, this is worth millions of dollars in advertising. The Conservatives spent $3-million to introduce Poilievre. The Liberals don’t need to spend a cent. And given Trudeau’s capacity to prepare for a debate, I’m not sure Poilievre will have an easy time when they face off. As prime minister, Trudeau has directed the cabinet according to his will, as Jody Wilson-Raybould and Bill Morneau discovered. He was the face of the government during the pandemic. He has ensured significant benefits for childcare, and his determination to support Indigenous people has brought him respect in a significant community. In Quebec, his refusal to intervene on the province’s new language law and his endorsement of the new federal Official Languages Act won him no friends in the anglophone community. However, it may cut into Bloc Québécois support and win votes in eastern Ontario and the Maritimes. As the MP for working-class Papineau, he is seen in Quebec as un gars de chez nous (one of us), despite his family name. While his casual approach to deficits may have made him a pariah on Bay Street and the Rideau Club, for Canadians who rely on government funding, he has opened the faucet. And that wins votes. Finally, having lived a life in the public eye, and as the child of divorce, his marital tribulations will be observed with compassion. Any lack of access in the past is now understandable, and he is a sympathetic figure, especially in the wake of the convoy Neanderthals carrying “Fxck Trudeau” flags. I believe the next election will be squarely between Trudeau and Poilievre; NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has lost any claim to being above the fray by keeping the Liberals in power with the supply-and-confidence agreement. For those who suggest Poilievre is a sure bet, I remember John Turner leading Brian Mulroney in the polls in 1988, only to lose that election. In 2015, Tom Mulcair was the man to beat, but lost to Trudeau. History is littered with “sure thing” politicians who ended up as “never was.” Trudeau has time to turn things around, most likely by leading with his strengths and shoring up his weaknesses. Former U.K. prime minister Harold Wilson famously said, “A week is a long time in politics.” If that’s true, imagine what two years could be like. Andrew Caddell is retired from Global Affairs Canada, where he was a senior policy adviser. He previously worked as an adviser to Liberal governments. He is a town councillor in Kamouraska, Que. He can be reached at pipson52@hotmail.com. The Hill Times

Justin Trudeau can’t be taken for granted

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Justin Trudeau can’t be taken for granted

The prime minister has time to turn things around, most likely by leading to his strengths and shoring up his weaknesses.

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