Can Poilievre and Singh exploit Trudeau’s weakness?

OAKVILLE, ONT.—At the time of writing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity seems to be in freefall, with one recent poll even indicating he’s trailing the Conservatives by a whopping 15 points. But, fortunately for Trudeau, polling numbers don’t always tell the whole story since it’s still an open question as to whether his main political rivals—Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh—can take advantage of the Liberal government’s apparent unpopularity. In short, polls or no polls, the opposition parties still need to craft a winning and persuasive communication strategy that will successfully exploit Trudeau’s weaknesses. Of course, that’s easier said than done. Keep in mind, even though he’s on the ropes, Trudeau is still an experienced campaigner who possesses the advantage of incumbency, while Poilievre is an untested leader, and Singh has already been solidly thumped twice. So, just for fun, let’s speculate as to what kind of political campaigns the Conservatives and New Democrats will ultimately deploy against a weakened Trudeau and his Liberals. Beginning with the Conservatives, I think it’s easy to predict what sort of tactics Poilievre will embrace. First off, I’m willing to bet that, unlike his immediate predecessors Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, Poilievre won’t adopt a non-confrontational, safe, “get-along-to-go-along” approach. Rather, he’s going to be aggressive, constantly on the attack, and he’ll play the populist card by declaring Trudeau’s only goal is to pander to his rich, elitist friends in the World Economic Forum. In other words, Poilievre will brand himself as a tough and determined anti-establishment leader who’ll be a champion for regular Canadians—the kind of people, he’ll say, Trudeau callously ignores. Now, at this point, you might be saying to yourself, that sounds like Poilievre will be a Donald Trump clone. Well, yes and no; I expect his campaign will have a Trumpian tinge to it, but only a tinge. It’s important to understand that, unlike Trump, Poilievre is an experienced politician who (again, unlike Trump) will probably have the discipline to stick to his scripted message. Besides which, I also believe Poilievre's populism will be less toxic than Trump’s, and thus more acceptable to a Canadian audience. Remember that, even though for many in the media, populism has a stigma attached to it, it’s still a powerful political force that taps directly into people’s deepest emotions. Now, let’s discuss the NDP’s possible strategy. Unlike Poilievre, I strongly doubt Singh will wrap himself in the flag of anti-establishmentism, since, after all, he’s helped prop up the pro-establishment Liberals for years. So, what can he do? Well, my guess is Singh will do the exact same thing he's done for the last two elections: namely, present himself as “Trudeau 2.0.” To put it simply, rather than talking about ideology or policy, he’ll be presented to Canadian voters as a safe alternative to Trudeau, which is to say, he’ll sell himself as a leader who possesses Trudeau’s charisma and shares his progressive agenda, but who isn’t burdened by Trudeau’s baggage. True, Singh unsuccessfully tried this sort of “out-Trudeauing Trudeau'' strategy in the last two elections, but the NDP will be hoping the third time’s the charm. And who knows, maybe it will be. Certainly, I could see Singh’s approach working if Canadians are tired of Trudeau personally, but, at the same time, they want to keep the status quo. If that’s the case, Singh could conceivably be seen as an attractive replacement. Anyway, this is how I think the Conservatives and the NDP will attack the Liberals. Two different approaches, but with the same goal. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times