Now is not the time to pull back on the Indo-Pacific Strategy

Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy is less than a year old, and already its future looks precarious. Questions around its implementation have been front and centre ever since this long-awaited document was released, and the push for significant budget cuts across the federal government reinforces those doubts. The Indo-Pacific Strategy is a rather ambitious document for Canada, committing to the development of expertise within Global Affairs Canada; to a whole-of-society effort to engage with Indo-Pacific nations; and to enhance diplomatic, defence, and trade presence in the region. Canada, over the years, has let its engagement with its Indo-Pacific allies and partners wither away. The country is seen as not attuned to the region’s dynamics or pressures, or engaged in the region in a meaningful way. The Indo-Pacific Strategy is seeking to rebuild those bonds. Treasury Board President Anita Anand has indicated that coming budget cuts should not affect programs that ‘address top priorities of the government,’ but defence and foreign policy are often the first to go on the chopping block, write Stephen Nagy and Charlotte Duval-Lantoine. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Although the Strategy seeks to re-engage Canada in the region via the strengthening of long-existing relationships, this will nonetheless require a lot of work, as many of them have been neglected over the past few years. This would also demand a lot of money to implement. For example, the deployment of an additional frigate to the Pacific will prove itself to be costly, as the Halifax class of ships are pushing beyond their life cycle, thereby making their maintenance and repair longer and more expensive to complete. The damaging of HMCS Winnipeg and the necessary repairs is a good example of this issue. Dr. Stephen Nagy is a professor at the International Christian University in Tokyo, and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. Photograph courtesy of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada Warnings about the Government of Canada spreading its limited resources too thin are common in foreign affairs and defence discussions. The implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy is no exception. Additionally, there has been a recognition that the foreign service is no longer fit for purpose, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly and her deputy minister David Morrison have committed to its reform. This will cost money, time, and personnel. Where will this money, time, and personnel come from? Part of the problem is not just money, but also a deprioritization of strategic studies, area studies, and traditional international relations programs at universities in lieu of programs that do not resonate with the geopolitical trends that will be with us for at least a generation—including, but not exclusive to, great power rivalry and economic security. Similarly, we cannot look at the implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the coming budget cuts ($500-million for fiscal year 2023-24) without looking at the state of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). With more than 61 per cent of occupations under critical conditions, only 34.4 per cent of surveyed service members voicing their satisfaction with their conditions of service, and an ever-increasing operational tempo (especially considering the increased deployment of CAF units to help communities deal with climate change-induced natural disasters), the costs necessary to rebuild the military to a level that will sustain this battle rhythm over the long term are not negligible. But with the estimation that National Defence would have to absorb about $1-billion of the $15.4-billion in expected cuts, worries about a resource-mission mismatch that will further burn out service members and impede on the execution of the Strategy are not unfounded. Charlotte Duval-Lantoine is the Ottawa operations manager and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. Photograph courtesy of Charlotte Duval-Lantoine Some might say that the caveats in Treasury Board President Anita Anand’s letter to her colleagues—namely, that budget cuts should not affect programs that “address top priorities of the government,” and that they should not “create any pressure on service delivery”—offer hope for the future. However, we have seen in the 1990s that: (1) government priorities shift based on fiscal situations; and (2) defence and foreign policy are often the first to go on the chopping block. Furthermore, budget cuts of this magnitude can only affect service delivery, especially of programs that have yet to be fully developed. So what does it mean? The political class is in a difficult position: having to exercise spending in challenging economic times for Canadians is tough, and will leave many dissatisfied. Planning will be critical if the government wants to keep its credibility both domestically and internationally. Recent developments have shown that many allies no longer see Canada as a reliable partner, as exemplified by its exclusion from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue; the trilateral pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, known as AUKUS; and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Cutting back on the implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, while far from being unprecedented, might further our allies’ loss of goodwill in our country. If Canada wants to protect itself from serious threats from China and Russia (e.g., foreign interference and large-scale exercises in the Arctic), the supply-chain bottlenecks that create economic pressures and stifle innovation, and fight against climate change, it needs to foster trust. Unfortunately, unfulfilled promises can easily break that trust and leave Canada isolated. Prioritization will be essential. Both Global Affairs Canada and the Department of National Defence will need to think strategically. Many of our allies have welcomed the Indo-Pacific Strategy, so let’s not lose sight of the consequences if we walk back our promises. It will be a difficult sell to Canadians in the midst of a housing crisis and relentless inflation, but one thing that Canada cannot afford is isolation. Dr. Stephen Nagy is a professor at the International Christian University in Tokyo, and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. Charlotte Duval-Lantoine is the Ottawa operations manager and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. The Hill Times