Decoding Trudeau’s olive branch to protesters

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has seemingly changed his tune when it comes to his most vociferous critics. By "critics," I’m talking about those angry people from across the country who regularly attend anti-Trudeau protests and wave placards, which often feature colourful language unsuitable for family viewing. Recall that not too long ago, a feisty prime minister referred to such protesters as a "fringe" minority that hold "unacceptable views." But that was then, and this is now. And now, he’s striking a more conciliatory tone. For one thing, he recently expressed regret about using the label "fringe," saying, "I wish I had phrased that differently." On top of that, the prime minister has even shown some empathy for anti-Trudeau protesters. Recently, when asked by the media about them, Trudeau declared: "Yes, there are people who are hurting, there are people who are lashing out. We need to be there to reassure them that they’re going to be able to succeed, that their kids and communities are going to be able to succeed, even though the world is changing in very scary ways.” So, I guess one way to interpret Trudeau’s apparent change of heart is to say he’s extending an olive branch to Canadians who are angry with his policies, trying his best to win them over to his side. Certainly, this is how Susan Delacourt, a columnist for the Toronto Star, sees it. Delacourt wrote on Aug. 22 that "Trudeau is not giving up on the people who turned on him." But I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. In fact, I’d argue Trudeau actually has given up on those people, but for political reasons he’s camouflaging it. Now, before I go on, let me say, I’m sure, on a personal level, Trudeau would love to have his enemies suddenly like him. After all, who doesn’t want to be liked? However, as a good politician, Trudeau also likely realizes that once people make an emotional investment in hating someone, it’s next to impossible to get them to change their minds. For that, we can blame confirmation bias—that is, the tendency of us humans to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas. In other words, if someone out there doesn’t like Trudeau, it’s likely they only read anti-Trudeau media columns, watch anti-Trudeau YouTube videos, and follow anti-Trudeau voices on social media. Nothing is going to change their minds. So, my point is, it’d be a waste of scarce resources for the Liberal communications team to try and win anti-Trudeau people over to their cause. By the way, it’d also be a waste of scarce resources for the Liberals to reach out to people whose confirmation bias is to love Trudeau. Why bait the hook, if you’ve already caught the fish? Basically, political campaigns spend most of their effort trying to persuade voters who are either undecided or who are “soft” supporters for the other side. Of course, this raises the question as to why Trudeau is dropping his belligerence toward anti-Trudeau protesters? Well, I’d argue there are two reasons. First off, whenever Trudeau employs cantankerous language, it undermines his “nice guy,” “sunny ways” persona. Secondly, and more importantly, I believe Trudeau understands that every time he angrily and publicly lashes out at “regular Canadians,” it raises the country’s political temperature, which helps his chief rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. For example, were Trudeau to continue insulting protesters, the Conservatives would respond with a TV ad saying something like, “Trudeau is viciously demonizing working Canadians: people like you!” That might make more Canadians emotionally invest in not liking Trudeau. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times