Amid growing demands for political change, Trudeau’s best hope remains Pierre Poilievre

OTTAWA—No Member of Parliament settling into their summer break could fail to notice the array of polls showing the Conservatives with an impressive, solid lead in popularity over the Liberals. In fact, it’s not surprising that, as Canadians try to cope with the bizarre turn of economic, social, financial, and work-related events set in motion by the pandemic, many are fed up with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s nearly eight-year-old government and are demanding changes in national political leadership. Since 2015, Trudeau and his finance ministers have brought in hundreds of programs and spent untold billions of dollars trying to improve the lot of average Canadians and, of late, to protect them and the economy from the ravages of COVID-19. What the Liberal government could have done to insulate Canadians from today’s unique, globally driven affordability crisis is unclear. But what is obvious is their failure to convince Canadians that they were really all that concerned about it, and there’s little doubt of the Liberals’ vulnerability on this issue. And, despite Trudeau’s efforts, he himself appears at best to have a love-hate relationship with the public now. What that comes down to—and we might as well say it out loud—is that Trudeau’s best hope at the moment remains Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. There’s no doubt the country is very much in the mood for change. In particular, Trudeau’s botched response to allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian politics appears to have given the Conservatives a significant boost in the polls. At the same time, it is abundantly clear that the Conservative leader—at least in his new version as a Maxime Bernier mini-me—may not be positioned to take advantage of that state of affairs. For some reason, the once-nerdy MP with a penchant for taxpayer-supported living arrangements has adopted the public persona of an outraged anti-elitist determined to run down many of the things Canadians believe in, such as decency, civility, compassion, tolerance, truth, and a sense of global responsibility. It may be that he and those around him just think this is where right-wing politics is headed. And there may be something to that, given what’s going on in the United States, for instance. Or given former prime minister Stephen Harper’s increasingly extremist alliance-building with right-wing autocrats such as Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, whose party has fascist origins; and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose anti-democratic, racist, and anti-LGBTQ+ policies have drawn fire across Europe. Paradoxically, as the Conservatives’ popularity as a party has been improving, Canadians’ view of Poilievre has been worsening. A recent poll by Nanos Research found that the Conservative leader fared only slightly better than Trudeau when people were asked about changing party leaders. “The research suggests that there is not much enthusiasm for either Trudeau or Poilievre to lead their parties during the next federal election,” Nanos told The Globe and Mail. Similarly, an Abacus Data survey last month put the Conservatives at 35 per cent in voter support, with an impressive seven-point edge over the Liberals. But a third of respondents calling for change said they don’t see a good option for changing the government. “Poilievre may be super popular and motivating for Conservatives, but he hasn’t yet convinced people that he’s a safe alternative to the prime minister,” Abacus CEO David Coletto told The Toronto Star. “The likely outcome is you’re going to have the main leaders being deeply unpopular in large parts of the country. And that’s going to make for, I think in some ways, a strange but also unpredictable political environment,” he said. Tellingly, when voters have been forced to make a choice in recent byelections, there has been no evidence of a backlash against the Liberals. Poilievre has done a good job of capturing Canadians’ anger in the post-COVID era. And he has an advantage when it comes to economic issues. Even if Canada continues to avoid a recession and jobs remain plentiful, a large segment of the public believes the economy is not working for them. But the Conservatives are vulnerable on the environment. This summer’s record-high temperatures and worst-ever forest fires (turning Canada’s biggest cities into a Blade Runner imitation) have reminded the public of the urgency of environmental issues. So, Poilievre will have to come up with something better than his party’s fantasy-based claim that emissions can be reduced painlessly without putting a price on carbon. In general, if Poilievre is going to capitalize on the Conservatives’ current advantages, he will have to convince Canadians that he has the policies and mindset to make him an acceptable alternative to Trudeau as prime minister—rather than a demagogue trolling for votes on the extremist fringe. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times

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Amid growing demands for political change, Trudeau’s best hope remains Pierre Poilievre

There’s no doubt the country is very much in the mood for change, but it’s clear the Conservative leader may not be positioned to take advantage of that state of affairs.

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