No time for politicos to rest this summer

OTTAWA—Parliament will rise for the summer later this week. Going into this holiday period, there are a number of things to watch which could influence a future election campaign—whenever it comes. None of the three main federal parties is free from challenge or lacks opportunity. Though for the governing Liberal Party in its eighth year in power, the window of opportunity is smaller than for their opponents. Last week was dominated yet again by the government’s mishandling of a major communications issue involving notorious killer Paul Bernardo. Yet again, the likeable Minister of Public Safety Marco Mendicino’s competency, and in turn the government’s, was called into question regarding Bernardo’s transfer from a maximum- to medium-security prison. This mess came as the Liberals were trying to dig themselves out of the hole they dug around examining apparent foreign electoral interference in Canada. It is hard to imagine that if he wants to win a fourth election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will opt for the status quo. A cabinet shuffle seems inevitable, as does some attempt at improving the way the Liberals go about dealing with internal issues. Every mess can’t be delegated to Dominic LeBlanc to clean up. He has formidable political skills, but he is only one person. While various polls show the Conservatives with a healthy lead over the Liberals, and the aforementioned Liberal ability for self-destruction at an all-time high, Team Poilievre also has work to do. The June 19 federal byelection in the Ontario riding of Oxford should prove insightful to the leader and his team that the steamroller approach isn’t always the best one. Equally, former Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole’s parting words about the need for policies that speak to cities and wisdom about being governed by social-media seduction ought to get proper contemplation. While the next election may indeed be Pierre Poilievre’s to lose—as some of his more boisterous acolytes assume—he still can lose it. The Conservatives will not want to ignore recent data points which also show rising negative impressions of the leader. And what of the NDP? Arguably, in terms of policy outcomes, leader Jagmeet Singh has had some wins, with the national dental care plan being the biggest. He has also supported some other targeted affordability measures that have passed because of the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement. As my colleague Jordan Leichnitz has smartly argued elsewhere, now is a time for the NDP to push for more from that pact to continue to try demonstrating they can legitimately argue to the public they have relevancy. Equally, Singh will also want to contemplate the opposite. Specifically, when and under what conditions will the NDP break up with the Liberals? A breakup at some point seems inevitable because the NDP will not want to get swamped or swallowed in an election campaign when the Liberal spin machine will claim they were solely responsible for progressive policy achievements. The NDP will need some time to remind their own supporters and the electorate that they offer a different value proposition than the Liberals. Finally, while Bernardo and foreign electoral interference have generated all the headlines in Ottawa, it is probably a safe bet to assume Canadians this summer are by and large going to be focused on affordability: the cost of things, and the risks or threats that presents to their families. To date, Poilievre seemingly has done better than Trudeau and Singh in speaking to that basket of issues. Will that change over the summer? Or will that continue to be an advantage for the Conservatives? One thing is certain: we are getting closer to an election, and the stakes for each party are getting higher. They will all be trying to win the summer. Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies and managing director of Abacus Data. He is a former adviser to Conservative political leaders. The Hill Times

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No time for politicos to rest this summer

Everyone will be trying to win the summer as we get closer to an election, and the stakes for each party are getting higher.

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