Looming historic clash over energy will again redraw federal political fortunes

OTTAWA—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has sought to provide global leadership on climate action, but divisions over what to do about the oil-and-gas sector—the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions—continue to thwart Canada’s ability to harness national action against the world’s worst-ever threat. This remains the case even as the growing risks of climate change are obvious to all in what is likely the most damaging wildfire season ever, with 120,000 people recently forced at least temporarily out of their homes from coast to coast. How to balance the economic factors arising from Canada’s reality of being the world’s fourth-largest crude oil producer—most of it coming from Alberta—with wider national interests has been a source of political tumult for half a century. It has decreed corporate winners and losers, magnified regional tensions, pitted westerners against Ottawa, fanned constitutional debate, and propelled the rise and fall of prominent political leaders. And after all these years of disputes, court cases, and elections, nothing much has been settled. Like his father before him, Trudeau has wagered much of his political fortunes on trying to shape Canada’s energy sector to deal with major challenges and chart what the Liberals see as a better future for the country. Along the way, the younger Trudeau has tried to enlist the support—and sacrifices—of Canadians in this historic green transformation. It is a big ask in that Canada is the only country among the world’s four largest oil producers with a carbon tax. And it is all the more gutsy for a minority government facing intense opposition to its environmental policies from the Conservatives and several provinces, led by Alberta and Saskatchewan. On top of that, the government is running out of time to ratchet up measures needed to meet its emissions reduction goals, and Trudeau, for whom this is a legacy policy, could be nearing the end of his national leadership role. His latest climate initiative, the Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act (Bill C-50), focuses on co-operative government/industry/labour action and green jobs. Heavy on process and sweetened with billions of dollars of available investment in clean technology, it seemed to provide a modicum of optimism for Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson about possibly reaching some kind of truce with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was quick to condemn the Liberals’ Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act after it was introduced in the House of Commons last week, writes Les Whittington. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade But it’s clear that this will be an uphill struggle. Smith was quick to condemn C-50 last week. “Alberta will not recognize, co-operate with, or enforce any attempt to phase out our province’s oil-and-gas industry or its workforce,” she responded. “This is non-negotiable.” Smith’s government is committed to sticking with its own climate action plan, which talks about carbon neutrality by 2050, but contains no interim targets or accountability mechanisms and is mostly relying on pie-in-the-sky ideas about technology coming to the rescue. Her determination to challenge the federal government’s jurisdiction when it comes to natural resources seems definitely more than just a vote-getting slogan. Upon maintaining power after last month’s provincial election, Smith rejected the federal government’s proposed cap on oil-and-gas emissions, which she calls a “de facto” production cap that would bring “economic hardship” to Albertans. And she rejected Ottawa’s plans for a new regulatory framework for a clean electricity grid by 2035. Despite talk about collaboration, the country seems headed for another bruising national clash over energy in the months ahead. Smith has reaffirmed her willingness to use the Alberta Sovereignty Act to nullify federal initiatives in her province, and the federal government has little choice but to tighten its emissions reduction framework as it applies to Alberta. The resulting standoff is likely to lead to a legal challenge, causing a flare-up in federal-provincial relations and spinning off political crosscurrents as it winds its way through the courts. And pressure on Trudeau from premiers could increase. In addition to the ongoing disputes between the federal Liberals and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, Atlantic premiers have asked Ottawa to hold off on the introduction of Clean Fuel Regulations, which they say will have a detrimental impact on their region. One way or another, Canadians’ willingness to support Trudeau’s ambitious climate action will be tested in the next election. While the federal carbon tax returns money to most Canadians, it is not well understood and acts as a lightning rod for criticism at a time when the cost of living is the No. 1 public concern. The Conservatives are steadily pulling ahead of the Liberals in the polls, and leader Pierre Poilievre’s fight against increases in the carbon tax and promise if in power to cancel it plays well into the widening narrative that it’s time for a change in Ottawa. So everything is in place for another energy-related upheaval. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times