Defence spending as a political pivot for the Trudeau government

Recently, The Globe and Mail ran two opinion pieces side by side: one by editorial writer Andrew Coyne, and the other by pollster Nik Nanos. Coyne’s article argued that it is time for a new centrist party of the sort being promoted by Centre Ice Canadians. Nanos’ piece emphasized that a majority of Canadians are ready to increase defence spending and forge stronger relationships with allies. Both pieces intersect on the issue of a renewed focus on defence and foreign policy. As a “blue” or centrist Liberal, I hope that a careful reading of both articles might prompt the government to pivot to a new political strategy which could set it up for success in the next election. The Liberal government needs to press the reset button whether it recognizes it or not. It is facing the same headwinds many other two- or three-term governments have encountered. The voters are simply tired of the same old, same old. According to a Nanos poll conducted earlier this month, the official opposition is opening up a substantial lead over the government with Conservatives at 34.3 per cent and the Liberals at 26.8 per cent, just a little over three points above the NDP at 23.5 per cent. Nanos tracking also has Pierre Poilievre as the preferred choice for prime minister at 27.3 per cent of Canadians followed by Justin Trudeau at 25.9 per cent. A glance at the numbers indicates that neither Poilievre nor Trudeau is seen as an inspiring choice. Still, the current prime minister is not without significant accomplishments. The Liberals should be given full credit for the social agenda the government has pursued since their election in 2015. Indigenous reconciliation has been a hallmark of this government as has the feminist agenda promoted by the prime minister. The government deserves kudos for cushioning the impact of COVID, its health agenda and the extension of dental benefits to lower income families. Some important progress has been made on climate change. Nonetheless, one area where the government has seriously under-performed is in foreign affairs and defence. Trudeau's declaration when he came to power in 2015 that “Canada is back” rings hollow at this point. And while the defence policy, Strong, Secured, Engaged, was a visionary document, its execution has been disappointing. Many Canadians who hold centrist views feel that the Trudeau Liberals have tilted too far to the left, and the Poilievre Conservatives too far to the right. The Trudeau-Singh agreement to keep the government in power has meant that the Liberal agenda appears to be focused largely on maintaining NDP support. So how does the government change its political fortunes? The solution for the Trudeau Liberals in the 12 to 24 months prior to an election should be a vigorous thrust to the centre of Canadian politics. Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin, and the ghosts of Liberal leaders past understood that the centre is where the votes are. Canadians love their social programs, but they also like fiscal discipline and debt reduction. One of the areas Coyne identifies as centrist is “increasing our defence spending in line with our NATO commitments.” This is where Coyne and Nanos are literally on the same newspaper page. Nanos polling has shown that the war in Ukraine has had a dramatic impact on Canadian public opinion for both defence spending and our view of NATO. Almost two in three Canadians (64 per cent) according to a Nanos poll are supportive of increases in defence spending to see Canada meet the two per cent of GDP target. Similarly, support for NATO has steadily climbed and those who have a positive or somewhat positive view of the alliance are now well above 80 per cent. The Trudeau government can’t continue on the same course and expect different results. It needs a radical refresh. The first opportunity for a strategic pivot to the centre of the political spectrum comes with the Defence Policy Update as well as announcements associated with the July NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. A new and robust defence policy supported with the necessary human and financial resources with a commitment to honour our NATO obligations could be an important first step in the process of resuscitating Liberal fortunes in anticipation of the next election. David Pratt is a former federal minister of national defence under then-prime minister Paul Martin, and is the principal of David Pratt & Associates. The Hill Times

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Defence spending as a political pivot for the Trudeau government

One area where the Liberal government has seriously under-performed is in foreign affairs and defence.

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