The Liberal succession problem

OAKVILLE, ONT.—When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau eventually decides to exit the political stage (or he’s pushed off it), his Liberal Party could face a serious succession problem. And by “succession problem," I don’t mean the party lacks talent to replace him; after all, there’s plenty of Liberals possessing strong political skills who are potential leaders in waiting. My point is it’ll be difficult for anybody to fill Trudeau’s shoes, no matter how talented they are because the Liberal Party has been transformed over the years into what might be called the “Justin Trudeau Party.” That’s to say the prime minister has imprinted his personality, values, and political vision onto the party. More than that, I’d argue the party’s success is directly linked to his unique charisma and style. In other words, Trudeau’s persona is inextricably intertwined with the Liberal Party brand. Or to put that another way, the party is like a suit that’s perfectly tailored to fit Trudeau, and no one else. Now before I go on, let me say I’m not by any means suggesting Trudeau is some sort of narcissistic egomaniac who, in a fit of delusional self-aggrandizement, mutated the Liberal Party into his own personal fiefdom. Indeed, if anything, he had to make the Liberal Party a reflection of who he is if only to save it from possible extinction. Let’s recall that before Trudeau took over as its leader in 2013, the Liberal Party was defeated, demoralized, disillusioned, and directionless. Essentially, it needed to personify Trudeau’s optimism, energy and enthusiasm; it needed to tie its wagon to Trudeau’s rising star. Besides, Trudeau is not the first politician to create a party in his own image. Take the case, for instance, of Canada’s federal Conservative Party, which for a long time was basically the “Stephen Harper Party”. Not only did the Conservative party reflect Harper’s own personality and approach, but also it needed his particular brand of iron discipline to keep its caucus marching together under a single banner. When Harper was no longer at the wheel, his immediate successors—Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole—took over a party that was simply not suited to their “nice guy” personalities. They were like two square pegs being pounded into round holes. This likely explains why neither man had much electoral success, and why neither lasted long as Conservative leader. Now let’s consider the case of the federal New Democratic Party. Back about 13 years ago, Jack Layton recrafted the NDP so it would mirror his image and accentuate his exciting and magnetic personality. It worked. No longer just a stodgy working-class party, the NDP under Layton suddenly exuded a modern brand of energetic progressivism allowing the party to soar to new electoral heights. However, after Layton passed away in 2011, he was succeeded as NDP leader by the bland and dull Thomas Mulcair, who although experienced and intelligent, was out of sync with the party’s Laytonian character. The end result: The NDP declined and Mulcair was unceremoniously booted out. It seems a Layton Party without Layton was doomed to fail. So yes, given the succession problems which have plagued both the NDP and Conservatives, the Liberals should be worried about their immediate post-Trudeau future. Are there ways to avoid a Liberal succession crisis? Maybe. Perhaps if Trudeau allows his cabinet colleagues opportunities to show off their personalities, to more firmly link themselves to the party brand, it might help. In fact, you could argue this is happening right now with Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. In short, the Liberals must make the post-Trudeau succession appear as seamless and natural as possible. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times

The Liberal succession problem

Regardless of talent, it will be difficult for anybody to fill Justin Trudeau’s shoes because the Liberal Party has been transformed over the years into what might be called the 'Justin Trudeau Party.'

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The Liberal succession problem

Regardless of talent, it will be difficult for anybody to fill Justin Trudeau’s shoes because the Liberal Party has been transformed over the years into what might be called the 'Justin Trudeau Party.'

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