Liberals have a theory for winning

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Canada’s federal Liberals face many serious problems—economic uncertainty, a litany of scandals, bad polling numbers, etc.—but despite all that negative stuff that’s dragging them down, I’d argue they still have a trick up their sleeve that could bring them back up. By “trick” I mean I’m willing to bet they have in place what I like to call a “theory for winning,” which is to say the Liberals probably have a well-thought-out election plan ready to go right now. And, yes, having such a plan is important in politics, because it’s hard to win an election when you’re plotting an ad hoc strategy on the fly, or you’re simply hoping the other side will make mistakes. So, what is this Liberal theory for winning? Well, of course, I can’t say for sure, but from what I know about past Liberal strategies, I’d say their plan will be to emphasize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s persona, or more specifically to emphasize his inherent likeability. Yes, that sounds like an overly simplified concept, but at the end of the day, politics isn’t really all that complicated; if people like your candidate, they’re more apt to vote for them. In other words, “likeability” matters. True, the prime minister’s likeability factor has taken a serious hit over the past few years, as evidenced by his steadily falling approval numbers in the polls, but that was inevitable, since, as the old saying goes, “in politics, friends come and go, but enemies only accumulate”. Indeed, every time the prime minister makes a policy decision, he risks alienating some segment of the political universe. That’s just how governing works. Yet, all that said, even though Trudeau’s persona has definitely suffered some damage, the flame of his likeability still flickers. As a matter of fact, this was revealed in a recently released Angus Reid poll, which indicated that, while Trudeau’s overall approval numbers are dropping, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre “lags in likeability.” As the Angus Reid analysis put it, “Trudeau is much more positively appraised in Quebec (36 per cent to 24 per cent), and slightly more so in Ontario (41 per cent to 34 per cent) and British Columbia (38 per cent to 33 per cent), than Poilievre." Clearly, if this poll is accurate (always a big “if” when it comes to such public domain opinion polls), it gives Trudeau and the Liberals a path to victory. All the Liberals have to do once an election is fully underway is remind voters that even though Trudeau may have disappointed them from time to time, he’s still the same charming, charismatic, and affable leader he was when he first bounded onto Canada’s political stage. And make no mistake, the Liberals are quite proficient when it comes to getting that particular message out through their political advertising. In fact, in past elections, their TV spots featuring Trudeau looking likeable, have always been well-written, well-produced, and quite persuasive. How could the Conservatives counter Trudeau’s inevitable likeability offensive? Well, they have two choices. First off, they can try to increase Poilievre’s likeability, which is easier said than done. The fact is, with rare exceptions, (e.g., former U.S. president Ronald Reagan) conservative politicians have a hard time coming across as likeable, since they usually focus on other personal traits such as toughness or competence. So, if they can’t make Poilievre more likeable, their second choice is to make Trudeau seem unlikeable. That’ll require the Conservatives to come up with a well-crafted, well-researched communication strategy aimed at undermining Trudeau’s brand. Basically, what I’m saying is, to offset the Liberal theory for winning, the Conservatives need their own theory for winning. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times

Liberals have a theory for winning

So, what is this Liberal theory for winning? I can’t say for sure, but it will likely be to emphasize Trudeau’s persona, or more specifically to emphasize his inherent likability.

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Liberals have a theory for winning

So, what is this Liberal theory for winning? I can’t say for sure, but it will likely be to emphasize Trudeau’s persona, or more specifically to emphasize his inherent likability.

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