Will the West’s support for Ukraine stand the test of time?

OTTAWA—Some analysts appeared surprised that Russian President Vladimir Putin had survived in office for a year after launching a disastrous attempt at a quick military takeover of neighbouring Ukraine. Putin has made Russia a subject of international condemnation, caused long-term damage to the domestic economy, callously sent tens of thousands of Russian soldiers to their deaths in a needless conflict with no end in sight, and conscripted 300,000 men to replace losses on the battlefield. And he is waging a barbarous, illegal war on Ukraine’s civilians. Yet there is no evidence that anything arising from Putin’s monstrous miscalculation has dented his popularity or ability to continue his dictatorial 22-year hold on his country. In fact, a small literature seems to have developed among experts and opinion surveyors trying to understand why this is the case. It starts with the reality that all leaders tend to benefit from the “rally-round-the-flag” phenomenon of war. And with Russia, with its seminal heroic myth arising from the defeat of Hitler’s invasion, the hardship of war in the cause of supposed national salvation is, of course, also a unifying element. Beyond that, Putin and his propaganda machine have been able to maintain an iron grip on information about the attack on Ukraine. Russians haven’t been so brainwashed since the Stalin era, one observer said. In fact, polls seem to indicate that a majority of the Russian population supports the war, and that support, at least among older people who generally get their news from state-run TV, might actually be increasing. As to why there hasn’t been a backlash after a year of bloody, failed attacks, explanations range from people thinking “it was a mistake to start the war but we can’t quit while we’re losing,” to Putin’s successful propaganda campaign claiming it’s a war against NATO to protect Russia from the West’s aggression. So, while things can change quickly, there’s little reason to think that an upheaval in Moscow will end the Ukraine invasion. Nor is there much reason to hope that Putin would decide to seek peace. Despite the Russian leader’s diatribes about the West’s plot to destroy Russia, it’s all too clear that Putin sees his life’s mission as expanding his country’s borders to redress what he sees as the catastrophe of the breakup of the Soviet Union. It was obvious enough to Russia’s neighbours. In Politico’s recent oral history on the run-up to the invasion, then-United Kingdom foreign secretary Liz Truss described efforts to enlist other countries in opposition to the Kremlin’s expected invasion. “The Baltic states and Poland were always incredibly strong on this,” she recalls, “because they knew exactly what the threat was—they know if Putin is successful in Ukraine, it won’t be the end of it.” Putin has recently warned his country of a protracted war and, in addition to systematically destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure, is stepping up the military offensive. The overriding question is becoming whether the West will persist in helping Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold back the invasion for the long term. United States President Joe Biden has vowed to stand by Zelenskyy as long as necessary to block Putin’s invasion, and Washington last week added another US$400-million to the US$32-billion in aid sent so far. But Biden’s ability to keep up the current level of assistance is increasingly being questioned. Some polls indicate a slippage in war-weary Americans’ support for the huge outpouring of funds for Ukraine and opposition from a small, but influential, group of Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives could complicate the White House’s efforts. Also, the political debate over continuing support for Kyiv is likely to sharpen as the 2024 presidential election gathers momentum. Both of the most prominent current Republican candidates—Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—have slammed Biden’s handling of the U.S. role in the conflict. DeSantis criticized the president for providing an “open-ended blank cheque” for Ukraine, adding that it’s not in the American interest to take part in Ukraine’s attempt to regain territory seized by Russian forces. Trump has blamed Biden for allowing a situation where “we’re teetering on the brink of World War Three” and promised to “end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours.” That claim, while anchored in the usual fanciful realm of Trumpism, is seen by supporters of Ukraine as a pledge to shut off American funding. In that vein, some say declining support for Zelenskyy could unfortunately turn out to be Putin’s only astute calculation in the whole war. “The Russians are digging in for the long haul,” Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told AP. Like other analysts, Hill said Putin is hoping for western support for Kyiv to dissolve—“that it goes away and that Ukraine is left exposed, and then that Russia can force Ukraine to capitulate and give up on its territory.” Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times

Will the West’s support for Ukraine stand the test of time?

The overriding question is becoming whether the West will persist in helping Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold back the invasion for the long term.

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Will the West’s support for Ukraine stand the test of time?

The overriding question is becoming whether the West will persist in helping Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold back the invasion for the long term.

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