Russia continues bluster after suspending nuclear-weapon treaty

Moscow’s top diplomat in Canada is continuing an oft-repeated trend since the start of his country's invasion of Ukraine by alluding to the spectre of the nuclear weapon threat after Russia suspended its participation in an arms-reduction agreement with the United States. In the early days of the now yearlong invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin has evoked the threat of nuclear war, but as the war progressed, until recently, the warning has become muted. Russian Ambassador to Canada Oleg Stepanov said the decision to suspend the New START Treaty isn’t sabre-rattling by Russia, remarking the suspension has to do with the changed strategic environment compared to when it was signed in 2010. The New START Treaty was signed in 2010 and places limits on deployed nuclear weapons, as well as on intercontinental ballistic missile launchers. The treaty also has a monitoring and verification capacity. The initial Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was signed between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union in 1991. Asked about Russia’s current position about deploying a nuclear weapon, Stepanov said that the conditions have already been met under Russia’s doctrine for use of nuclear weapons, citing Dec. 6 and Dec. 26, 2022, drone attacks on the Engels air base, which houses that nation's strategic bombers. He said under the doctrine for the “conditions for the transition of the Russian Federation to the use of nuclear weapons,” one of the four metrics for possible use is an “attack by adversary against critical government or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions.” “ can be viewed by the hawks as an attempt to strike our nuclear deterrence capabilities, which obviously gives us a green light to respond with certain nuclear measures, but we decided not to of course,” he told The Hill Times during an interview at the Russian Embassy. President Vladimir Putin has alluded to the threat of using nuclear weapons since Russia's invasion of Ukraine more than a year ago. Photograph courtesy of Flickr/Presidential Executive Office of Russia Stepanov wouldn’t say what conditions would need to be present to trigger Russian use of nuclear weapons. “If there is a strike against a nuclear silo nuclear strategic bomber on Russian proper territory, we have under all international laws and according to our publicly presented nuclear doctrine to retaliate in a scope that is considered to be adequate,” he said. But he noted that in January 2022, Russia, along with all the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, agreed to a statement affirming that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” “We demonstrate very hard restraint with regards to anything that may trigger such an action,” he said, remarking that it would be an “absolutely alien thought” to consider that a nuclear weapon could be used in the Ukrainian conflict. Stepanov placed the blame for suspending the New START Treaty on the United States and its support for Ukraine, saying that it has a policy of trying to “strategically defeat Russia.” “In this environment, it would be rather strange to get back to the table with the Americans as if anything is normal,” he said. “So unless the United States reverses its hostile course and also takes into account the material and other support they provide to Ukraine, I don’t see any perspective of resuming the START treaty as it used to be.” Stepanov said Russia has become “cornered” by the U.S. and NATO, and didn’t have “any other option” but to react as they did, remarking that Moscow will stick to the framework of the treaty even when it is suspended. He refused to acknowledge that NATO members' support to Ukraine, which Russia takes issue with, is a direct result of its own decision to invade Ukraine. “You can use the term that Russia invaded Ukraine, but it’s about Russia and Ukraine. It’s not about two nuclear countries under obligation of the treaty,” he said. “The United States may condemn what Russia does—it’s a free world, everyone’s entitled to their position politically—but it doesn’t give the Americans right to use the Ukrainians as a proxy to try to hit Russian nuclear potential.” Nuclear weapons have limited use in Ukraine conflict: analyst Since the start of the invasion, analysts have differed over how seriously to take the nuclear weapon threat, with some proposing it should be entirely dismissed and others suggesting that it could be a real possibility. University of Waterloo international relations professor Alexander Lanoszka, an expert on European security and nuclear strategy, said the current risk of Russia using a nuclear weapon is slightly elevated compared to before the invasion, but remarked there is little political or strategic rationale for Moscow to use the weapon. “They played their nuclear card rather early in the opening weeks of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “In some ways, they played their nuclear card too early and so we’ve kind of come to discount some of these nuclear threats.” Lanoszka said as Russia's progress in the war becomes increasingly stalled, he can foresee the country continuing to try to gain leverage through nuclear sabre-rattling as it lacks alternative means of leverage. “But because of the very nature of the weapons and how little military use they often have, it’s probably not going to be a very credible threat all the same,” he said. He said the suspension of the New START Treaty can be viewed as part of Russia’s sabre-rattling, but also as solidifying the fact the treaty hadn’t been in compliance already. Despite the risk being slightly elevated, Lanoszka said the risk of their use remains “very, very low,” noting that there isn’t a military argument for using the weapons, nor is there a political one, as it could help collapse support it has built in the Global South and with China. He added the attacks on the Engels airbase don’t meet the threshold for using nuclear weapons, noting that they are “fair military targets.” “It would be ridiculous to say that is a red line for Russia, considering what it has been doing to Ukraine,” he said. Former parliamentarian Douglas Roche says the risk of nuclear weapons being used is 'real' and needs to be addressed. The Hill Times file photograph Former ambassador Anne Leahy, who served as Canada’s top diplomat in Moscow from 1996 to 1999, said she thinks the reason Putin mentioned the suspension of the treaty in his recent speech is that he didn’t have any other concrete proposals to announce. But she added that any nuclear threat should be taken seriously. She said Russia’s defence doctrine states that nuclear weapons would only be used in retaliation or if conventional or nuclear weapons threatened Russia’s existence. “That’s a pretty high bar,” she said, noting that there are only a select few people around Putin who would judge what could be considered an existential threat against Russia. Former MP and senator Douglas Roche, who has championed nuclear disarmament, said the risk of the use of nuclear weapons is “real” and “cannot be ignored.” “In the context of the escalating Ukrainian war, we could get into a situation of desperation on Putin’s part,” he said. “Even if you think it’s a bluff and he won’t use nuclear weapons, it still carries a risk because of an accident, or a miscalculation, or some commander didn’t get the right order.” The former senator said that in response to the threat, the international community needs to push for the adoption of a no-first-use policy, as well as to “de-alert” the weapons that have been on a constant state of alert status. Roche said Canada should be working closely with Japan ahead of the upcoming G7 summit in May. Tokyo has indicated it wants nuclear disarmament to be highlighted during the summit, and has chosen the symbolic venue of Hiroshima as the city to host the summit. “Nuclear disarmament has been sidelined by the intensity of the Ukraine war,” he said. “I would look for Canada to return to peacemaking mode and step away from a war-making mode that they are in now.” nmoss@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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Russia continues bluster after suspending nuclear-weapon treaty

Russian Ambassador Oleg Stepanov says two attacks on Engels air base ‘can be viewed’ as meeting the conditions where his nation could use nuclear weapons.

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