Singh needs a few sparks

OAKVILLE, ONT.—It would be easy to miss, but Canada’s New Democratic Party recently enjoyed a brief flicker of momentum. According to a recent story in The Hill Times, during the last three months of 2022, “The NDP brought in more than double their fundraising totals from the previous quarter, raising more than $2.5-million.” Okay, that may not be the most Earth-shattering news in history, but at least it’s tangible evidence that the NDP might be gaining some steam, that it's starting to move in the right direction, that it’s coming to life. Indeed, if I were an NDP communications person, I’d be all over that bit of good financial news, using it to both energize the party’s base and to “spin” the media. I’d put out news releases and fundraising letters saying stuff like, “Our recent fundraising success is due to the bold leadership of Jagmeet Singh. He’s exciting the party’s membership and winning over Canadians to his cause. In the weeks and months ahead that support will only accelerate.” Getting that kind of message out is important because in politics momentum matters. Simply put: people want to be on a “moving train.” Momentum makes it easier to raise money, it makes it easier to attract voter support, and it makes it easier to win positive news coverage, all of which leads to more momentum. And, of course, momentum is something the NDP has sorely lacked in recent times. In fact, it’s been downright stagnant. Poor polling numbers, meagre fundraising totals, and an inability to insert itself into media narratives have all helped create the perception that the NDP is going nowhere fast. Mind you, this wasn’t always the case. Back in 2011, under the late Jack Layton’s leadership, the NDP seemed to be on the crest of an unstoppable “Orange Wave.” At the time, many pundits (including myself) believed the New Democratic Party was poised to replace the Liberals as Canada’s premier left-of-centre party. Yet, that didn’t happen; not long after Layton passed away in 2011, the orange wave fizzled out and the party started going into reverse. Nor has Singh, who’s been NDP leader now for nearly six years, been able to reverse the party’s sagging fortunes. One reason the NDP has stalled, in my view, is that Singh has been unable or unwilling to aggressively degrade Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political brand. As a matter of fact, as we all know, he’s agreed to a supply-and-confidence arrangement with the Liberals that could keep Trudeau in power until 2025. Do you see how this might blunt a party’s ability to gain momentum? It’s hard to say “support my team" when you’re perceived as supporting the other team. Yet, fortunately for Singh, the New Democrats still might gain momentum simply because Trudeau is losing steam. And yes, as of this writing, Trudeau’s political ship is seemingly taking on water. His approval numbers are dropping, and he’s also had to back off on some key parts of his government’s legislative agenda. Even some of Trudeau’s friends in the media are starting to question his communication skills, and are openly wondering if he’s lost touch with voters. In such a situation, Singh could certainly present himself as the left-of-centre alternative to Trudeau, as the only leader capable of stopping Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's right-wing populist political machine. All it would take for Singh to start making that case is a small bump in the polls and continued modest fundraising success. Then he could legitimately say, “While Trudeau’s heading down, I’m heading up.” Sometimes it just takes a few sparks to get a political bandwagon moving. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times