In politics and pro-leagues, true leaders must know when to go

HALIFAX—Knowing when it’s time to go is the hardest part of reaching the top of the mountain. Tom Brady made that point five years ago when he told an interviewer that the only thing he was afraid of was the end of his playing career in the National Football League. The greatest quarterback of all time had trouble saying goodbye. How much trouble? He retired twice, once last year in a flood of emotion, and again last week without the histrionics. Brady played in the NFL for 23 seasons. For context, the average length of a career on football’s biggest stage is three-and-a-half years. So Brady suspended the law of averages, but he could not repeal it. At 45, he left the game a couple of years too late. Had he exited in 2021, it would have been after winning his seventh Super Bowl by defeating the Kansas City Chiefs. As it is, he left after posting his first losing season in the NFL, and dropping a playoff game at the helm of an average team, compared to the powerhouses he had led with the New England Patriots. As it goes in professional sports, so it is in politics. Knowing when to go is often the difference between leaving as a star or becoming a rink rat. Conservative Richard Hatfield was the longest-serving premier in New Brunswick history, winning four provincial elections and holding that post from 1970 to 1987. Despite mounting controversies and scandals, including drug charges against the premier laid by the RCMP, and allegations that he had offered marijuana and cocaine to four students, Hatfield refused to resign. Instead, he decided to contest the 1987 provincial election only to see his party demolished. The man who succeeded Hatfield, Frank McKenna, handled his exit from politics very differently. This very popular politician wiped out the Conservatives in the New Brunswick provincial election of 1987, winning every seat in the legislature. He promised he would leave that post if he was still in office after a decade. And exactly 10 years after his rout of the scandal-plagued Conservatives, McKenna retired from politics, exactly as he’d promised. Compare McKenna’s exit from politics to another premier, Joey Smallwood of Newfoundland. After bringing Newfoundland and Labrador into Canada in 1949, the only living Father of Confederation ruled the Rock for more than two decades. Although he announced his intention to resign in 1968, after nearly 20 years as premier, Smallwood changed his mind and ran in the 1971 election. He just couldn’t climb down from the top of the mountain. He was defeated by Progressive Conservative Frank Moores. Instead of leaving as a titan of Canadian politics, Smallwood’s last years were marked by scandal and controversy, revealed by insiders from his own party, including cabinet ministers Ed Roberts and Clyde Wells. So as opposed to being remembered for making Newfoundland and Labrador Canada’s 10th province, Smallwood’s legacy included penning the ruinous Churchill Falls agreement with Quebec, wasting millions on the then-doomed Come By Chance oil refinery, and hobnobbing with con men like John C. Doyle and John Shaheen, who fleeced the Newfoundland treasury. Another major politician who didn’t know when it was time to leave was Stephen Harper. Harper ran eight times to represent Alberta ridings in the House of Commons, winning on seven occasions as a Reform, Canadian Alliance, and Conservative MP. He contested five federal elections as leader, winning three and losing two. Only John A. Macdonald had a better record as Conservative leader and served longer than Harper’s nine years and 271 days as prime minister. But Harper decided to lead his party into a fifth federal election, a poor decision that led to a political rout at the hands of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. The Liberals went from third place in Parliament to 184 seats and a majority government. Harper left as the leader who took the CPC from majority government to just 99 seats. Compare Harper’s exit to Pierre Trudeau’s. Trudeau became the fourth Canadian prime minister to resign while in office. He had served for 15 years and 164 days. His time in office included being elected six times as an MP, and leading the Liberals to four national victories against one defeat. Acting on the advice of Michael Kirby and Michael Pitfield, who told the PM he could not win another election, Trudeau had his famous walk in the snow and resigned in 1984. Discretion proved to be the better part of political valour. His successor, John Turner, lost that year’s election to Brian Mulroney and the Progressive Conservatives. Does it matter that you leave politics before you are thrown out? Apparently it does. Despite being a polarizing figure, with a record that included invoking the War Measures Act, the elder Trudeau was the best PM in history, according to Canadians from across the country in a poll by Pollara, with support in all parts of the country. Though Harper placed second, his support was concentrated in two Prairie provinces, and strictly within the Conservative Party. Justin Trudeau, like Tom Brady, has had a story-book political career. He is five-for-five in running for a seat in the House of Commons, representing the Quebec riding of Papineau. As Liberal leader, he has won three out of three federal elections, and has served seven years and 90 days as prime minister. But if the polls have it right, running for a fourth time to remain prime minister may be a bridge too far. Recent surveys show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by seven points, and suggest a majority of Canadians would like Trudeau to step down and hand the ball to a new leader. Pollster Nik Nanos says that it is a troubling sign for Trudeau that 43 per cent of Canadians think the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 40 per cent who believe it is moving in the right direction. Over the last 16 years, only twice has the “wrong” number been numerically higher than the “right” number: the last two years of Harper’s doomed government in 2013 and 2014. Trudeau has already had his three-peat. Will he go for that rare fourth victory and step up beside John A. Macdonald and a very few others? As history and Tom Brady show, that last Super Bowl is always the hardest one to pull off. Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist. The Hill Times