Does Trudeau have the fire in his belly to stay in the game?

HALIFAX—If Justin Trudeau is considering a career path change, events in New Zealand may just focus his deliberations. The resignation on Jan. 19 of Jacinda Ardern, that country’s prime minister, was remarkable for a lot of reasons. The biggest one is that very few politicians holding the top job give it up voluntarily. Even fewer have the guts to admit what Arden did, that she was leaving because she simply didn’t have the reserves of energy to seek and serve another term in office. The standard practice for professional politicians is to hang on to power with all 10 toes, whether or not they are personally running on empty. When they go, they they tend to go at the end of the public’s boot. When Ardern came to power as a 37-year-old, she became an inspiration for women around the world, much as Trudeau did when he burst on the scene as a new generation politician in 2015. Under Arden’s stewardship, New Zealand handled the early stages of the COVID pandemic admirably, as did Canada. She also handled the horrific 2019 hate-slaughter of 51 people in two Christchurch mosques with empathy and emotional intelligence—reaching out to survivors, and the Muslim community as a whole. Trudeau repeatedly honoured the 22 victims of Nova Scotia’s terrible mass-shooting in 2020. Ardern became the second head of state to have a baby while in office, one feat Canada’s PM couldn't match. She won international applause when she brought her infant daughter to the floor of the United Nations, a lovely reminder of what really makes the world go around. But like Justin Trudeau, Ardern’s popularity was damaged by her government’s tough restrictions during the early stages of the pandemic. International praise for her initial handling of COVID-19 turned to domestic resentment and anger over the government mandates and restrictions to fight the virus. That resentment and anger boiled over onto the grounds of New Zealand’s Parliament last year, when “protesters," inspired by the Canadian truckers’ convoy that paralyzed Ottawa for three weeks, showed up to register their displeasure. Their occupation turned violent when the government moved to disperse the occupiers. As they were being forcibly removed, they threw rocks at police and set fire to their tents and mattresses. The incident hurt Ardern's popularity, just as New Zealand was headed into a fall election this year. Having won re-election in a landslide victory just two years prior, Arden’s Labour Party suddenly found itself looking at the taillights of the Conservatives in the polls. But there were worse consequences. The viciousness personally directed toward New Zealand’s PM reached dangerous levels, to the point where she had to cancel some public appearances for security reasons. Trudeau has faced ignorant and abusive mobs while campaigning, including ones who hurled stones in his direction. And during the debacle of the Freedom Convoy, the Canadian Border Services Agency received death threats against the prime minister, as former CBSA official John Ossowski testified at the Emergencies Act Inquiry. One group even offered to provide a gallows with which to hang the prime minister. Conservative parties everywhere have sharpened the invective against COVID restrictions, characterizing anyone who imposed them as freedom-hating and dictatorial. In the United States and Canada, the Republicans and the CPC whipped up the sense of aggrievement to the point that it spilled over into everything, from Covid mandates to the price of chicken and delays at airports—all the government’s fault. Not a great time to be an incumbent. No one could fault Justin Trudeau if he should decide to leave public life. For one thing, he has been around for 14 years, and is into his third term as prime minister. Ardern, by comparison, lasted in office for just five-and-a-half years before burning out. The longer politicians remain in power, the better targets they present to their critics and detractors. According to the latest poll by Nik Nanos, Trudeau is in something of the same position as Ardern was before her resignation: in decline. In Trudeau’s case, Nanos found that the PM and his party are trailing his Conservative rivals by seven points. That, of course, could change on the drop of a writ. Trudeau’s recent decision to buy the controversial F-35 stealth fighter jet, something he vowed he would not do, will doubtless remind people of his broken pledge to replace Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system. The recent sniping by former Liberal finance minister Bill Morneau will have echoes of the disenchantment with the PM registered by former cabinet ministers Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. The constellation of events in the immediate future is a problem for Trudeau. According to various experts, the coming year could see the country slip into a recession—along with a lot of other Western democracies. Inflation continues to bite Canadians in the pocketbook. Come February, the commissioner of the Emergencies Act Inquiry will be pronouncing on whether or not the government needed to enact such unprecedented legislation to end the illegal trucker occupation. If Commissioner Paul Rouleau should find that the government didn’t, the guy who brought the truckers doughnuts, and took selfies with them, will be dancing in the halls of Parliament. Now, charges of arrogance, over-reach, and fiscal mismanagement threaten to morph into allegations of corruption. A parliamentary committee is set to scrutinize $101.4-million in contracts given by the Trudeau government to the American consulting firm McKinsey and Company. In the course of the investigation, the committee will call the prime minister and seven cabinet ministers—effectively putting the whole government under the microscope. The PM says he welcomes the investigation. That is reminiscent of former auditor general Sheila Fraser’s brilliant comment that every audit begins with two lies: “Glad to see you,” says the party about to be audited. “We’re here to help,” says the auditor. Other than the usual suspects, no one is pushing Justin Trudeau out the door. But it would be refreshing if he could take a deep look inside and tell the rest of us if he still has the fire in his belly to stay in the game—the way Jacinda Arden did. Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist. The Hill Times