Politics and the five-issue clusters

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Given that we appear to be heading into a recession, it seems obvious the next federal election will be won by whichever political party puts together a campaign which best reflects that famous slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Or will it? Now before I go on, let’s recall that “it's the economy, stupid” was a slogan coined during the 1992 U.S. presidential election by Democratic strategist James Carville. Wanting to keep his team focused, Carville’s aim was simply to remind his campaign workers that the economy, was an important issue for Americans. But interestingly, over time, Carville’s message has gone from being a simple campaign motto to a kind of catchphrase for those in the political culture who believe the economy is the only issue that matters during elections. In other words, as long as you keep your campaign message strictly focused on things like employment rates, the cost of living, taxes, etc., you will prevail, because, after all, as Carville once said, it’s the economy, stupid. That’s why, when a federal election is called, many will expect Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to focus all their efforts on economic issues. But it’s also important to keep in mind that the economy isn’t the only issue out there that matters to voters. Heck, in the 1992 U.S. election, even Carville pushed other buttons besides economic ones. Indeed, it’s forgotten now, but he also had two other campaign slogans that year: “Change vs. More of the Same” and “Don’t Forget Health Care.” So basically, Carville didn’t put all his electoral eggs in one basket; he knew other issues concerned Americans besides the economy. In fact, I knew an American pollster who believed there are actually five main areas of interest to voters. He called them “issue clusters.” And yes, one of those five issue clusters is made up of voters who are concerned by what’s going on in the economy: the “economic issue cluster." So, what are the other four? Well, one is the “foreign affairs cluster," composed of voters who care about things like national defence and international terrorism. Meanwhile, voters who care about issues such as education, health care, and the environment are grouped into the “social issue cluster." Voters who care about things like crime, drugs, and immigration can be found in the “urban issue cluster.” And finally, there’s the “moral issue cluster” made up of voters who are concerned about issues such as abortion, gay rights and protecting traditional values. Anyway, before an election got underway, my pollster friend would do polling to gauge the relative size and strength of each of these clusters, so a campaign could be prepared accordingly. And while the economic issue cluster is usually the largest, other issue clusters can sometimes come into play. Certainly, we’ve seen political parties win elections by catering to non-economic issue clusters. For instance, in the last Canadian federal election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau clearly reached out to the “social issue cluster” when he stressed the importance of his COVID mandate strategy. Or consider the recent U.S. midterm election. Many believe the Republicans didn’t do as well as expected in that election because their party was on the wrong side of moral issues, such as abortion. Now don’t get me wrong here. I still believe economic issues will be of paramount importance in Canada’s next federal election. All I’m saying is, in a tight race, other issues could play a pivotal part in deciding who wins and who loses. Maybe a new slogan should be: “It’s not just the economy, stupid.” Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times