Challenges to how Canada operates only likely to deepen in 2023

OTTAWA—Having a federation that is, by some accounts, more decentralized than the European Union is one thing. Having a populace that often doesn’t seem to grasp where the areas of governmental responsibility lie within the federal-provincial system is quite another. That’s part of the reason why, more than at any time in recent years, the coming 12 months are shaping up as a test of Canada’s ability to keep functioning in a stable, cohesive manner. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been generally biding his time as the provincial premiers rev up their prerogatives and demands and test the limits of Canada’s constitutional democracy. Most inflammatory, of course, has been Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has yet to be convinced that Canada has a national government. She has moved quickly to lay the groundwork for conflict with Trudeau while simultaneously keeping the flame of separation glowing among the United Conservative Party fringe. But, with an Alberta election coming this spring, Trudeau seems intent on avoiding a confrontation over Smith’s legislation allowing her government to order public servants to ignore federal laws she sees as infringements. In the meantime, Ottawa’s plan to help oil and gas workers transition to what Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson calls “sustainable” jobs as part of the inevitable long-term shift away from fossil fuels is being characterized by Smith as an attempt to kill the petroleum sector. “We are not going to be shutting down our oil and natural gas industry. We are not going to be transitioning our workers, who are in good, high-paying, meaningful, important jobs, into installing solar panels, which is the idiocy Elizabeth May was first proposing when this kind of thing came out,” Smith said on her radio program. In reality, Smith seems to want Trudeau to play down talk of transition in Alberta’s most important economic sector while increasing the billions of dollars in green tech investment Ottawa is making available to help enable carbon capture and other key innovations needed to reduce emissions and meet climate targets. For his part, Trudeau floated the idea that Alberta, which is expecting a $12.3-billion budget surplus, might want to use some of the oil and gas windfall to increase the province’s own green tech investments. This dispute reminds one of the federal-provincial standoff on health care. The political stakes over who gets blamed for the crisis in the country’s provincially administered health-care system are reaching new highs. Hence the premiers seem more determined than ever to try to convince Canadians that Trudeau is responsible for this disaster. And somehow the fact that many of the provinces are demanding more money from Ottawa for health care while refusing to use their own provincial budget surpluses to save the health-care system gets obscured amid the partisan bluster. Ontario, for instance, is close to a budget surplus. And Premier Doug Ford is spending taxpayer dollars that could go toward improving crumbling health care to appeal a court decision that his law limiting nurse’s wage increases to one per cent a year is unconstitutional. This is being done even though the government is well aware that Ford’s punitive wage cap is contributing to severe hospital staffing shortages. At the same time, Ford is calling for more health-care money from Ottawa. This clash pitting Trudeau against the premiers is likely to continue to destabilize national political affairs in 2023, since the prime minister, in keeping with the advice of most health-care professionals, is unlikely to accede to the premiers’ demand for billions more in this funding with no accountability. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, perhaps unwilling to say anything that might jar the NDP government in British Columbia, is systematically enhancing the confusion over which level of government is responsible for health services. He has threatened to force an election unless he sees action by Trudeau to address the whole mess. Premier Scott Moe is gearing up to challenge Ottawa over natural resource and environmental policy with his Saskatchewan First Act, and Quebec Premier François Legault—like Ford in Ontario—has no qualms about using the constitutional escape clause to undermine guarantees of Canadians’ rights and freedoms. All of these situations contribute to potential chaos, distrust of government, and the weakening of the country’s system of shared governmental powers. We’ve seen where this kind of thing leads in the United States, among other places, in recent years. No wonder Eurasia Group consultants, in their annual report on global risks, said Canada’s “polarized political parties are exacerbating regional divisions; exposure to the U.S. political and social media ecosystem is facilitating cross-border radicalization; and policy issues, especially energy and climate change, are being weaponized for political gain at the expense of national unity. These symptoms are likely to get worse as the next federal elections draw closer.” Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times

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Challenges to how Canada operates only likely to deepen in 2023

These situations contribute to potential chaos, distrust of government, and the weakening of the country’s system of shared governmental powers.

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