A week that could reverberate in Canada and beyond for years

OTTAWA—The stakes are high for Canadians as the world reshapes itself in an era when the political parameters and the international framework that have dominated for half a century in the post-World War years are teetering. The potent trends behind these changes came together in the past week in an unusual constellation of events, beginning with the midterms elections in the United States. The failure of the Republicans to bring about the expected “red wave” at a time when the resident of the White House—in this case a Democrat—usually suffers major losses in the U.S. Congress shook up American politics in a way not seen since Donald Trump’s emergence seven years ago. There were numerous currents at work in the Nov. 8 outcome. These included a backlash against the U.S. Supreme Court’s anti-abortion ruling, an uptick in youth voting, and the failure of some of Trump’s handpicked candidates to deliver for the party at a time when inflation and Biden’s unpopularity should have made for a Republican landslide. Many thought the Republican elite’s outraged reaction to this embarrassing failure of the Trump brand might break the former president’s grip on his party and signal that he, and his big lie about 2020 election fraud, are wearing thin. Others, aware that half of Republicans believe the big lie, caution that Trump can’t be counted out. But Canadians are right to see the Nov. 8 result as a slight positive in a deeply disturbing picture of extremist hostility in American politics. If it is a sign of Trump’s waning influence, it could be a major development for Canada, which has a great deal to lose from the seemingly limitless political, economic, and trade turmoil inspired by Trump and his followers next door. On the international stage, U.S. President Joe Biden held the first in-person meeting of his presidency with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. The follow-up from the three-hour discussion is likely to have profound implications around the world for years. Biden said afterwards that he didn’t see a “new Cold War” as a necessary outcome of the increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing. However, he said the two leaders didn’t resolve any of their countries’ many differences, particularly over the U.S. promise to defend Taiwan should China attempt to militarily assert its claim to the self-governing island. But Biden and Xi did arrange to step up bilateral communications, which holds out some hope of an improvement in a relationship that has recently hit a new low. Whether ties will be improved is an open question. Biden may not want to say so, but Cold War-like conditions already formed the backdrop of his face-to-face with Xi. The U.S. National Security Strategy released in October envisions a long-term ideological struggle with Beijing, and the Americans have been galvanizing allies in Europe and Asia to deal with a more assertive China. For what it’s worth, China’s Foreign Ministry said Xi objected in the meeting to Biden’s framing the U.S. rivalry with China as “democracy versus authoritarianism,” also saying that “China does not seek to change the existing international order.” In any case, the U.S. has put Beijing on notice that, after years of Trump's ineffective trade sanctions, the current administration is taking aim at China’s economic Achilles heel. This comes in the form of new export controls on the most advanced semi-conductor chips needed for AI and other cutting-edge technologies and indispensable for defence production. The U.S. is also investing tens of billions of dollars in building chip factories at home. Canada is moving in step with the U.S. In the past week, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly previewed Ottawa’s long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy by signalling that Canada’s decades-long effort to improve trade integration with China will be reshaped. While trade will continue, Canada will balance its approach so as to be more confrontational with Xi’s regime and restructure our trade ties away from China. China “seeks to shape the global environment into one that is more permissive to interests and values that increasingly depart from ours,” Joly said. In the name of national security, the federal government has taken a tougher stand on Chinese investment in Canada’s critical minerals sector, recently telling three of China’s state-controlled firms to divest their holdings in Canadian lithium mining companies. Also this past week, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson was another humiliation for President Vladimir Putin and a major inflection point in the conflict. While by no means definitive, it could add important momentum to Ukraine’s military in its campaign to drive out Putin’s army. According to the Chinese, Xi told Biden that China is “highly concerned” about the current situation in Ukraine. If he really wanted to prove he's not trying to undermine the rules-based world order, Xi could end his silence on Ukraine and pressure Putin to end the Russian invasion. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times